Publication: ESTIMACIÓN DEL COSTO DE CAPITAL DE LOS SUBSECTORES DEL TRANSPORTE EN CHILE
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Date
2018
Authors
GONZÁLEZ HERNÁNDEZ, WILSON ALEJANDRO
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Abstract
El principal objetivo del presente estudio es determinar el costo de capital de los subsectores del transporte en Chile, cuya finalidad es entregar información a los empresarios y al gobierno para evaluar futuras inversiones en esta materia. Todo esto se logra mediante el uso de un modelo que permite realizar este cálculo, considerando los antecedentes que se tiene de cada sector a nivel mundial.Para esto, en primer lugar, se realiza un análisis de los subsectores del transporte en Chile, comparándolo con países desarrollados como Estados Unidos y con economías de Latinoamérica. A partir de ello se distinguen las siguientes observaciones:En el transporte de carga a nivel local, Chile tiene una baja participación ferroviaria, generando que exista menor eficiencia en este sector, además esta industria está liderada por el transporte de carga por carretera, donde existe una gran cantidad de compañías que solo tienen en promedio 2,8 vehículos por empresa, lo que produce ineficiencias operacionales en este subsector.El transporte marítimo por su parte es el subsector que más depende de los efectos macroeconómicos, dado que su actividad está basada en el comercio exterior. Adicionalmente se puede mencionar que el desarrollo de esta industria está limitado por la eficiencia logística en los puertos y por el desarrollo del transporte ferroviario.Finalmente, se puede observar que el transporte aéreo de Chile se encuentra marcado por la presencia de la empresa LATAM, ya que tiene la mayor participación de mercado a nivel local y es una de las aerolíneas más grandes de Latinoamérica, por lo tanto, el rendimiento de este subsector está ligado al desempeño de esta empresa.Posteriormente para realizar la estimación del costo de capital de cada subsector descrito, se requiere de información relativa al costo de capital propio y el costo efectivo de la deuda de los subsectores de transporte. Para obtener el primero de ellos se analizan una serie de estudios que permiten determinar el costo de capital propio para economías emergentes que no poseen información de mercado, seleccionando finalmente el modelo CAPM Híbrido Ajustado. Luego se realizan los cálculos, obteniendo como resultado valores que oscilan entre 9,70% y 12,37%, estableciendo que hay subsectores del transporte en Chile que son más riesgosos que otros, con respecto al mercado.Es importante mencionar que se realiza un análisis de todos los resultados obtenidos, comparándolo con diversos estudios y con los antecedentes presentados en este trabajo, permitiendo validar los valores obtenidos del costo de capital propio.Luego se obtiene el costo de la deuda y con él, se calcula el costo de capital de cada subsector, utilizando el costo medio ponderado de capital (WACC). Es así, como se obtienen valores que fluctúan entre 7,04% y 12,37%, según el riesgo de mercado que tenga cada subsector y el nivel de endeudamiento que se escoja.Finalmente, se concluye que los subsectores del transporte de carga por carretera y el transporte aéreo presentan poco riesgo en su inversión, donde el primero es ideal para pequeños y medianos empresarios, mientras tanto, el segundo es ideal para grandes inversionistas. Por otro lado, se determina que los subsectores del transporte marítimo y ferroviario son vitales para el crecimiento del país, estableciendo que en un mediano plazo se tendrán que evaluar grandes proyectos en esta industria, donde podría participar el gobierno y los empresarios para conseguir una mayor eficiencia en los subsectores y disminuir el riesgo que tiene Chile en esta materia, dado que la inversión en algunos casos es alta y su recuperación es a largo plazo.
The main objective of the study presented below is to determine the cost of capital of the transportation subsectors in Chile, whose purpose is to provide information to businessmen and the government to evaluate future investments in this matter. All this is achieved using a model that allows this calculation to be made, considering the background of each sector worldwide.First, an analysis of the transport sub-sectors in Chile is carried out, comparing it with developed countries such as the United States and Latin American economies. From this, the following observations are distinguished:In the transportation of cargo locally, Chile has a low railway participation; generating lower efficiency in this sector, this industry is also led by the transport of cargo by road where there is a large number of companies that only have on average, 2.8 vehicles per company, producing operational inefficiencies in the subsector.The maritime transport, on the other hand, is the subsector that depends most on macroeconomic effects, given that its activity is based on foreign trade. Additionally, it can be mentioned that the development of this industry is limited by the logistic efficiency in the ports and the development of rail transport.Finally, it can be seen that the air transport of Chile is marked by the presence of the LATAM Company, since it has the highest market share at the local level and is one of the largest airlines in Latin America; therefore, the performance of this subsector is linked to the performance of this company.Subsequently, in order to estimate the cost of capital for each subsector described, information is required on the cost of its own capital and the effective cost of the debt of the transport sub-sectors. To obtain the first one, a series of studies are analyzed that allow determining the cost of own capital for emerging economies that do not have market information, finally selecting the CAPM Adjusted Hybrid model. Then the calculations are carried out, obtaining as a result values ranging between 9.70% and 12.37%, establishing that there are subsectors of transport in Chile that are more risky than others, with respect to the market.It is important to mention that an analysis of all the obtained results is carried out, comparing it with several studies and with the antecedents presented in this work, allowing to validate the values obtained from the cost of own capital.Then, the cost of the debt is obtained and with it, the capital cost of each subsector is calculated, using the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This is how we obtain values that fluctuate between 7.04% and 12.37%, depending on the market risk that each sub-sector has and the level of indebtedness that is chosen.Finally, it is concluded that the subsectors of road freight transport and air transport present little risk in their investment, where the former is ideal for small and medium entrepreneurs, meanwhile, the latter is ideal for large investors.It is also determined that the subsectors of maritime and rail transport are vital for the country's growth, establishing that in the medium term large projects in this industry will have to be evaluated, where the government and businessmen could participate to achieve greater efficiency in the subsectors and reduce the risk that Chile has in this matter, given that the investment in some cases is high and its recovery is long term.
The main objective of the study presented below is to determine the cost of capital of the transportation subsectors in Chile, whose purpose is to provide information to businessmen and the government to evaluate future investments in this matter. All this is achieved using a model that allows this calculation to be made, considering the background of each sector worldwide.First, an analysis of the transport sub-sectors in Chile is carried out, comparing it with developed countries such as the United States and Latin American economies. From this, the following observations are distinguished:In the transportation of cargo locally, Chile has a low railway participation; generating lower efficiency in this sector, this industry is also led by the transport of cargo by road where there is a large number of companies that only have on average, 2.8 vehicles per company, producing operational inefficiencies in the subsector.The maritime transport, on the other hand, is the subsector that depends most on macroeconomic effects, given that its activity is based on foreign trade. Additionally, it can be mentioned that the development of this industry is limited by the logistic efficiency in the ports and the development of rail transport.Finally, it can be seen that the air transport of Chile is marked by the presence of the LATAM Company, since it has the highest market share at the local level and is one of the largest airlines in Latin America; therefore, the performance of this subsector is linked to the performance of this company.Subsequently, in order to estimate the cost of capital for each subsector described, information is required on the cost of its own capital and the effective cost of the debt of the transport sub-sectors. To obtain the first one, a series of studies are analyzed that allow determining the cost of own capital for emerging economies that do not have market information, finally selecting the CAPM Adjusted Hybrid model. Then the calculations are carried out, obtaining as a result values ranging between 9.70% and 12.37%, establishing that there are subsectors of transport in Chile that are more risky than others, with respect to the market.It is important to mention that an analysis of all the obtained results is carried out, comparing it with several studies and with the antecedents presented in this work, allowing to validate the values obtained from the cost of own capital.Then, the cost of the debt is obtained and with it, the capital cost of each subsector is calculated, using the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This is how we obtain values that fluctuate between 7.04% and 12.37%, depending on the market risk that each sub-sector has and the level of indebtedness that is chosen.Finally, it is concluded that the subsectors of road freight transport and air transport present little risk in their investment, where the former is ideal for small and medium entrepreneurs, meanwhile, the latter is ideal for large investors.It is also determined that the subsectors of maritime and rail transport are vital for the country's growth, establishing that in the medium term large projects in this industry will have to be evaluated, where the government and businessmen could participate to achieve greater efficiency in the subsectors and reduce the risk that Chile has in this matter, given that the investment in some cases is high and its recovery is long term.
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Keywords
COSTO DE CAPITAL , EVALUACION TRANSPORTE EN CHILE , MODELO DE COSTOS