Thesis LATAM: LA CLAVE BRASILEÑA
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Date
2016
Authors
OLIVA CARRASCO, DENIS ANDRÉS
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Abstract
La grave crisis financiera y comercial global se está sintiendo cada vez con más fuerza en el continente. Un nuevo informe del Banco Central de Brasil confirma la desaceleración que está sufriendo la economía.El estancamiento de la economía a lo largo del último año ha suscitado muchas dudas en relación con la sostenibilidad del modelo de crecimiento brasileño, basado en la expansión del crédito y el consumo privado. El enfoque constante en la demanda ha generado problemas sustanciales como el incremento de la deuda de los hogares, la apreciación de la divisa y el aumento de los costos laborales (no equiparado por la productividad). Debido a estos problemas, el mercado de crédito se ha desacelerado y la competitividad del sector manufacturero ha disminuido. De cara al futuro, esperamos que la reducción de los tipos de interés, los precios favorables de las materias primas y cierto reajuste (muy limitado) del modelo de crecimiento en favor de la oferta, mantenga al país en la senda del crecimiento, aunque este no será superior al 4% en el mediano-largo plazo. Este escenario presenta un claro sesgo bajista ya que a largo plazo depende de la (incierta) moderación de los mercados de crédito y de la política fiscal.
The severe financial crisis and global business is feeling more and more force on the continent. A new report from the Brazilian Central Bank confirms the slowdown in the economy is suffering.The stagnation of the economy over the past year has raised many doubts about the sustainability of Brazilian growth model, based on credit growth and private consumption. The constant focus on the demand generated substantial problems such as the increase in household debt, the currency appreciation and rising labor costs (not matched by productivity). Because of these problems, the credit market has slowed and the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector has declined. Looking ahead , we expect the reduction in interest rates , favorable prices (very limited) growth model for supply , raw materials and some realignment keep the country on the path of growth, although this not be more than 4% in the medium - long term. This scenario presents a clear bearish bias as long term depends on the (uncertain) moderation in credit markets and fiscal policy.
The severe financial crisis and global business is feeling more and more force on the continent. A new report from the Brazilian Central Bank confirms the slowdown in the economy is suffering.The stagnation of the economy over the past year has raised many doubts about the sustainability of Brazilian growth model, based on credit growth and private consumption. The constant focus on the demand generated substantial problems such as the increase in household debt, the currency appreciation and rising labor costs (not matched by productivity). Because of these problems, the credit market has slowed and the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector has declined. Looking ahead , we expect the reduction in interest rates , favorable prices (very limited) growth model for supply , raw materials and some realignment keep the country on the path of growth, although this not be more than 4% in the medium - long term. This scenario presents a clear bearish bias as long term depends on the (uncertain) moderation in credit markets and fiscal policy.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
BANCO CENTRAL DE BRASIL , DESACELERACION ECONOMICA , ECONOMIA BRASILENA
