Thesis IRÁN Y SU POSIBLE NUEVO PAPEL EN EL MAPA PETROLERO
Date
2016
Authors
RIVEROS OLMEDO, ADRIAN ESTEBAN
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Abstract
Dentro del mercado mundial un factor clave que predomina actualmente en el desarrollo de la economía mundial es el petróleo, es ultimo ha presentado fuertes variaciones en los precios del crudo que pasaron de más de US$100 por barril a menos de US$30 en menos de un año. Esto último debido a múltiples factores como la recesión de china, el aumento de las tasas arancelarias y la inclusión de nuevos oferentes en el mercado petrolero como lo es Irán el cual según el acuerdo firmado el 14 de julio del 2015 entre Irán y los cinco miembros del consejo de seguridad de las naciones unidas más Alemania, estipula que el país reduzca sus existencias de uranio enriquecido en un 98% en 15 años y su capacidad de enriquecerlo en dos tercios en 10 años1. A cambio, se levantarán todas las sanciones impuestas por su programa nuclear, lo que le permitirá exportar petróleo a mercados hasta ahora restringidos, como la unión europea.Las consecuencias potenciales de la vuelta del petróleo iraní a los mercados occidentales pueden ser significativas: Irán es el séptimo productor mundial, con 3,4 millones de barriles diarios (MBD) de crudo de un total global de 93 MBD en 2014; ocupa la cuarta posición en niveles de reservas, por detrás de Venezuela, Arabia Saudí y Canadá; y se encuentra en el grupo de los productores de más bajo coste.Un aumento que sin duda se verá favorecido por la mejora de la capacidad financiera del país, que recuperará el acceso a los activos que tenía bloqueados en el extranjero, y por el esperado incremento de las inversiones extranjeras. No en vano numerosas petroleras foráneas ya han mostrado un gran interés por el país. Así, el Gobierno espera alcanzar a medio plazo una producción total de 5 MBD, una cifra que no parece exagerada si se tienen en cuenta los 6 MBD que Irán producía en la década de 1970.De lo anterior, se realizará un estudio para analizar el impacto en la economía mundial de la variación del petróleo, los agentes productores y como Irán afrontará la apertura estos nuevos mercados, analizando su estructura interna de gobiernos, las restricciones políticas y legislativas para propiciar la inversión y reactivar la producción interna de petróleo a niveles de 500.000 (8) barriles por día en el mediano plazo de 6 a 12 meses.Finalmente recomendaremos las principales medidas para afrontar el posible estancamiento y la tendencia al desplome de precios para el petróleo y como potenciar la inversión futura para la reactivación de su economía.
Within the global market a key factor currently dominates the development of the world economy is oil, is finally presented sharp fluctuations in oil prices which rose from more than US $ 100 a barrel to below US $ 30 in less than a year. The latter due to multiple factors such as the recession of China, increased tariff rates and the inclusion of new suppliers in the oil market as it is Iran which according to the agreement signed on July 14, 2015 between Irán and the five members security council of the united nations plus Germany, stipulates that the country reduce its stocks of enriched uranium by 98% in 15 years and its ability to enrich it by two thirds in 10 years. In return, all sanctions imposed over its nuclear program will rise, allowing you to export oil to markets so far restricted, as the European Union.The potential consequences of the return of Iranian oil to Western markets can be significant: Iran is the seventh largest producer, with 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from a global total of 93 MBD in 2014; It ranks fourth in levels of reserves, behind Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Canada; and it is in the group of lowest cost producers.In this context, and according to estimates of the Iranian government, the lifting of sanctions may result in an increase in world production and 1.1 MBD in 2016. An increase undoubtedly be helped by improving the financial capacity of the country which will regain access to assets that had blocked abroad, and by the expected increase in foreign investments.They not in vain many foreign oil companies have already shown great interest in the country. Thus, the government expects to achieve a medium-term total production of 5 MBD, a figure that does not seem exaggerated when taking into account the 6 MBD Iran produced in the 1970s.From the above, a study was conducted to analyze the impact on the global economy of the variation of oil producers and as Iranian agents will face opening new markets, analyzing the internal structure of governments, political constraints and legislative measures to promote the investment and boost domestic oil production levels of 500,000 8 barrels per day in the medium term of 6 to 12 months.Finally we recommend major measures to address the possible stagnation and the tendency to plummeting prices for oil and as enhance future investment for the revival of its economy
Within the global market a key factor currently dominates the development of the world economy is oil, is finally presented sharp fluctuations in oil prices which rose from more than US $ 100 a barrel to below US $ 30 in less than a year. The latter due to multiple factors such as the recession of China, increased tariff rates and the inclusion of new suppliers in the oil market as it is Iran which according to the agreement signed on July 14, 2015 between Irán and the five members security council of the united nations plus Germany, stipulates that the country reduce its stocks of enriched uranium by 98% in 15 years and its ability to enrich it by two thirds in 10 years. In return, all sanctions imposed over its nuclear program will rise, allowing you to export oil to markets so far restricted, as the European Union.The potential consequences of the return of Iranian oil to Western markets can be significant: Iran is the seventh largest producer, with 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from a global total of 93 MBD in 2014; It ranks fourth in levels of reserves, behind Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Canada; and it is in the group of lowest cost producers.In this context, and according to estimates of the Iranian government, the lifting of sanctions may result in an increase in world production and 1.1 MBD in 2016. An increase undoubtedly be helped by improving the financial capacity of the country which will regain access to assets that had blocked abroad, and by the expected increase in foreign investments.They not in vain many foreign oil companies have already shown great interest in the country. Thus, the government expects to achieve a medium-term total production of 5 MBD, a figure that does not seem exaggerated when taking into account the 6 MBD Iran produced in the 1970s.From the above, a study was conducted to analyze the impact on the global economy of the variation of oil producers and as Iranian agents will face opening new markets, analyzing the internal structure of governments, political constraints and legislative measures to promote the investment and boost domestic oil production levels of 500,000 8 barrels per day in the medium term of 6 to 12 months.Finally we recommend major measures to address the possible stagnation and the tendency to plummeting prices for oil and as enhance future investment for the revival of its economy
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
IRAN , MAPA PETROLERO , PIB
