Thesis IMPACTO ECONÓMICO DEL IMPUESTO DE CO2 EN EL MERCADO ELÉCTRICO A LARGO PLAZO
Date
2016-09
Authors
SAAVEDRA VÉLIZ, RODRIGO ANDRÉS
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Abstract
Actualmente, las emisiones de contaminantes en la generación de energía eléctrica en Chile no son sancionadas con ningún tipo de gravamen, es por esto la importancia de analizar el comportamiento del mercado eléctrico en el largo plazo con el impuesto de emisiones de dióxido de carbono (CO2) que afectará a la generación en su totalidad.En esta memoria de título se realizó un análisis del impacto del impuesto a las emisiones de CO2 en el Sistema Eléctrico Nacional (SEN) para distintos escenarios del valor del impuesto, los que afectan en la definición de planificación sobre la matriz energética a futuro. Se observó el impacto sobre las distintas unidades generadoras existentes pertenecientes al mercado y el efecto que tendrá en futuras licitaciones de energía.Se consideraron cuatro escenarios de evaluación: un escenario base y tres aplicando el impuesto, donde el base consistió en aplicar los supuestos de la Comisión Nacional de Energía (CNE) en el Informe Técnico del Precio Nudo de Corto Plazo (ITPN) Abril 2016 [1] hasta el año 2042 sin aplicar impuesto de emisiones; el primero aplicó un impuesto de 5 [USD/ton CO2]; en el segundo escenario se aumentó el valor del impuesto a 14 [USD/ton CO2]; en el tercer escenario se evaluó un valor del impuesto de 30 [USD/ton CO2].Una vez definidas las variables generales del análisis (demanda, precios de combustibles, disponibilidad del gas, plan de obras de generación y transmisión), se resolvió la operación económica del Sistema Eléctrico de Potencia (SEP) y se calculó las emisiones de CO2, junto con los costos asociados al impuesto, a la inversión y operación, así como los ingresos por venta energía y potencia al mercado spot, para las distintas unidades generadores consideradas en cada escenario. Finalmente, se estimaron precios de oferta para las próximas licitaciones de energía con un portafolio de generadores existentes en el SEN de acuerdo a los indicadores económicos valor actual neto (VAN) y la tasa interna de retorno (TIR) de un flujo de caja a 20 años.Los resultados obtenidos muestran que un aumento del impuesto de emisiones de CO2 disminuye la liberación del gas de efecto invernadero, pero aumenta el costo del sistema.Las simulaciones se realizaron con el software OSE2000, licencia perteneciente a KAS Ingeniería, empresa que facilitó el desarrollo de esta memoria.
Currently, emissions of pollutants caused by electricity generation in Chile are not affected with any taxes. It is important to study the long-term behavior of the electricity market, because the tax emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will affect the whole generation.This thesis’s project analyzed the impact of CO2 in the National Chilean Electric Systems for different scenarios of tax value, particularly the ones that influence in the future matrix energy. It was observed the impact on the several generators belonging to the market and the effect it will have on future energy bids.Four scenarios were considered: one base case and three applied the tax’s emission of CO2. The first comprises a tax of 5 [USD/ton CO2] under the assumptions that considers the National Energy Commission in the Nods price Technical Report April 2016, expanding them until 2042; the second scenario the tax value is increased to 14 [USD/ton CO2]; the third stage evaluates a tax value of 30 [USD/ton CO2].Once defined the general variables (demand, fuel prices, availability of gas, generation expansion plan and transmission expansion plan), the economic operation of the electrical system was solved and the CO2 emissions, operating costs, costs related to tax CO2 emissions, revenues from sales of energy and power to spot market were calculated for different generators belonging to the generation expansion plan considered in each scenario. Finally, bid prices were estimated at upcoming auctions energy for a portfolio of existing generators in the system according to the results of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) of cash flow to 20 years.The results obtained showed that a higher value of the emission’s tax reduced the generation of the greenhouse gases, but increase the total system’s cost.The simulations of the four scenarios were carried out by means of the software OSE2000. This software is developed by KAS Engineering, company that facilitated the development of this study.
Currently, emissions of pollutants caused by electricity generation in Chile are not affected with any taxes. It is important to study the long-term behavior of the electricity market, because the tax emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will affect the whole generation.This thesis’s project analyzed the impact of CO2 in the National Chilean Electric Systems for different scenarios of tax value, particularly the ones that influence in the future matrix energy. It was observed the impact on the several generators belonging to the market and the effect it will have on future energy bids.Four scenarios were considered: one base case and three applied the tax’s emission of CO2. The first comprises a tax of 5 [USD/ton CO2] under the assumptions that considers the National Energy Commission in the Nods price Technical Report April 2016, expanding them until 2042; the second scenario the tax value is increased to 14 [USD/ton CO2]; the third stage evaluates a tax value of 30 [USD/ton CO2].Once defined the general variables (demand, fuel prices, availability of gas, generation expansion plan and transmission expansion plan), the economic operation of the electrical system was solved and the CO2 emissions, operating costs, costs related to tax CO2 emissions, revenues from sales of energy and power to spot market were calculated for different generators belonging to the generation expansion plan considered in each scenario. Finally, bid prices were estimated at upcoming auctions energy for a portfolio of existing generators in the system according to the results of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) of cash flow to 20 years.The results obtained showed that a higher value of the emission’s tax reduced the generation of the greenhouse gases, but increase the total system’s cost.The simulations of the four scenarios were carried out by means of the software OSE2000. This software is developed by KAS Engineering, company that facilitated the development of this study.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
CO2 , IMPUESTO , MERCADO
