Thesis CENTRALES DE GENERACION BASADA EN MOTORES DE COMBUSTION INTERNA DE DOBLE COMBUSTIBLE Y SU APLICACIÓN EN EL SECTOR INDUSTRIAL
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Date
2016
Authors
MONTAÑO GUZMAN, FERNANDO
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Abstract
Este documento detalla, la investigación técnico-económica de la tecnología de generación de doble combustible, el cual basado en una tecnología ampliamente conocida como son los motores de combustión interna, representa una alternativa de suministro de energía eléctrica para la industria, entre los objetivos de este estudio esta encontrar el punto donde se puede hacer de éste un concepto atractivo para la industria, identificar las ventajas y desventajas de su utilización, las confiabilidades y seguridades que otorgaría en el suministro, los posibles puntos referidos al marco regulatorio u la utilización más adecuada de esta tecnología para distintas opciones de negocio como PMGD, corte de punta o Auto-producción en clientes industriales, ubicados tanto en el segmento libre como regulado.Respecto a esta tecnología, las aplicaciones de motores de doble combustible se han visto impulsadas en los últimos tiempos principalmente por los beneficios económicos y características de flexibilidad asociados a la operación, sin embargo la atractividad económica dependerá en gran medida de la cantidad total de combustible diésel que será desplazado por el gas, así como del diferencial de precio que pudiese existir entre ambos combustibles, un motor de doble combustible adecuadamente desarrollado y aplicado en su uso final, puede reemplazar el motor diésel convencional en casi todos sus campos de aplicación, en especial, cuando las limitaciones asociadas a la facilidad de transporte del combustible gaseoso pueden ser resueltas, los motores de doble combustible se utilizan ampliamente en aplicaciones fijas como es el caso de la generación eléctrica.De las principales conclusiones del estudio, se tiene que los PMGD con motores de combustión interna Bi-fuel, estarían obligados a apostar al costo marginal el cual tiene variación horaria, esto se debe a que sus costos operativos son mayores al precio estabilizado, además el análisis económico de tipo determinístico de los PMGD con tecnología Bi-Fuel mostro resultados positivos los cuales se sustentan en supuestos fuertemente condicionados a variables de mercado (analizadas ex_post como en el caso del costo marginal horario 2015), haciendo la sensibilización y en particular el análisis estocástico de las principales variables se obtiene como resultado una distribución de probabilidades donde cerca al 46% de la distribución toma valores negativos lo cual implica un alto riesgo para el negocio.Del suministro bajo un contrato PPA para un cliente Libre vs corte de punta, no se vislumbran ventajas económicas claras mostrando resultados negativos para los casos analizados, en el desarrollo del estudio solo se obtuvo beneficios económicos cuando se tomó la inversión como costo hundido. Debido a que los resultados económicos varían con el comportamiento eléctrico del cliente y su curva de carga, es necesario evaluar caso a caso la factibilidad económica de la operación de corte en punta, modulación de carga u otras opciones para disminuir la potencia en punta.Los resultados de los análisis técnico-económicos para los casos analizados (PMGD, corte de punta o Auto-producción en clientes libres y regulados) muestra un panorama donde la tecnología Bi-Fuel como fuente de energía si bien representa algunas pequeñas ventajas comparando con sus tecnologías pares (diesel, Gas Natural), visto en conjunto las tecnologías de generación basada en motores de combustión interna, tienen una muy limitada competitividad en el mercado eléctrico principalmente dada la alta dependencia del precio altamente variable de los combustibles y su volatilidad asociada.Por supuesto se debe reconocer que es posible que la tecnología Bi-Fuel sea competitiva ante escenarios particulares, por ejemplo cuando los costos de conexión a la Red Comercial sean superiores en comparación al uso continuo de generadores basados en MCI, otro escenario posible es que, debido a los problemas ambientales los motores diesel tengan restricciones en la operación de corte de punta en zonas con problemas de contaminación, y que los motores Bi-Fuel producto de la operación con ambos combustibles (Diesel & GN) por lo tanto teniendo menores emisiones puedan operar, con lo cual se generaría un posible mercado para esta tecnología.Los principales factores de riesgo identificados para de la tecnología de doble combustible varían de acuerdo a los escenarios evaluados es decir PMGD, corte de punta o autoproducción. Entre estos Factores de Riesgo principales están las los riesgos operacionales como horas de operación, como también los factores de riesgo de mercado como el costo marginal en la barra de inyección, los Costos Variables Combustibles.Las horas de operación y el CMg representan los ingresos económicos directos para un PMGD, la difícil determinación de las horas de operación a un costo marginal conveniente representan un factor altamente riesgoso.Del lado de los costos como principal factor de riesgo se encuentran los costos variables combustible los cuales en chile dependerán inevitablemente del mercado internacional debido a las altas tasas de importación de combustibles, en el entendido que el comportamiento que sufre el precio del combustible es volátil, este implica un alto riesgo para el resultado económico futuro principalmente para las opciones de PMGD y Auto-producción, en el caso particular del gas natural y/o GNL se requiere de negociaciones de contratos generalmente a largo plazo para grandes volúmenes de consumo, donde la principal función de los contratos es la mitigación y transferencia del riesgo, los contratos tienden a ser fuertemente inflexibles con cláusulas de tarifas e indexaciones definidas como el Take or Pay lo que también representa un factor de riesgo alto.
This document details the technical and economic investigation about dual-fuel generators based on widely known internal combustion engines, which represents an alternative power supply for the industry, some objectives of this study are to find the point where this becomes an attractive concept for industry, identify the advantages and disadvantages of their use, reliabilities and what reassurances would provide in the power supply, points relating to the regulatory frame or the most appropriate use of this technology for various business options as PMGD (small media distributed generators), peak shaving or self-production for industrial customers located both in the free as regulated segment.Concerning to this technology, the dual-fuel engines applications have been seen boosted in the last times, mainly by economic benefits associated with the lowest operating cost and flexibility characteristics, however the economic attractiveness (economic benefits resulting from lower operating costs) will depend largely from the total amount of diesel fuel that will be displaced by natural gas in a operation and of course depend from the differential price between them, a dual fuel engine properly developed and adequately applied in the final use, could replace a conventional diesel engine in almost every uses and applications, especially when the limitations associated with the gaseous fuel transport can be resolved easily, the dual fuel engines are extensively used in stationary applications such as power generation.The main conclusions of the study, in the case of PMGD (small media distributed generators) with Bi-fuel engines, would be forced to bet the marginal cost of electricity, which it has hourly variation, that are due to their high operating costs greater than stabilized price, of the deterministic economic analysis, the PMGD with Bi-Fuel technology has positive results, however this result is strongly conditioned to market assumptions variables (discussed ex post as the 2015 marginal cost of electricity on Polpaico bar), the sensitizing and the stochastic analysis of the main variables, show results where the distribution of probabilities took about 46% negative values which implies a high risk for PMGD case.The supply under a PPA contract for unregulated customer vs peak shaving, cannot glimpse clear economic advantages, the economic benefits will be obtain only when the investment was taken as a sunk cost. due to the results can vary with the electrical behavior of the client and its load curve, the economic feasibility of the peak shaving, load modulation or other options to reduce the peak power must be evaluated case by case.Finally, the technical and economic analysis results, for PMGD, peak shaving or self-production, shows a panorama where the Bi-Fuel technology as an energy source even though it represents some small advantages compared to their peer technologies (diesel and natural gas), all generation technologies based on internal combustion engines, have very limited competition in the electricity market, mainly due to the high dependence on the fuel price highly variable and its associated volatility.Of course it must be recognized that it is possible that Bi-Fuel technology can be competitive in particular scenarios, such as when the connection costs to commercial utility are higher compared to continuous use of generators based MCI, another possible scenario is that due to environmental problems diesel engines have restrictions on the peak shaving operation in areas with air pollution problems, and that the Bi-fuel engines as a result of operation with both fuels (diesel & GN) therefore having lower emissions can operate, thereby would be generated a potential market for this technology.The main risk factors identified for dual fuel technology vary according to the scenarios evaluated namely PMGD, peak shaving or self-production. Among these main risk factors are the operational risks such as hours of operation, and market risk factors such as variable costs of fuel, marginal cost of electricity in the injection bar, The operating hours and the marginal cost of electricity, represent the direct economic earnings for the PMGD, the difficult determination of the operating hours at a convenient marginal cost of electricity represent a high risk.To the cost side, as the main risk factor are the fuel variable costs, which in Chile inevitably depend on the international market due to high rates of fuel import, the fuel price is variable and volatile this involves high risk for future economic result, mainly for PMGD options and self-production, in the particular case of natural gas and / or LNG is required contract negotiations usually long-term type for large volumes of consumption, where the main role of the contracts is mitigation and risk transfer, the contracts tend to be highly inflexible, rates and indexations clauses like a Take or Pay which also represents a high risk factor.
This document details the technical and economic investigation about dual-fuel generators based on widely known internal combustion engines, which represents an alternative power supply for the industry, some objectives of this study are to find the point where this becomes an attractive concept for industry, identify the advantages and disadvantages of their use, reliabilities and what reassurances would provide in the power supply, points relating to the regulatory frame or the most appropriate use of this technology for various business options as PMGD (small media distributed generators), peak shaving or self-production for industrial customers located both in the free as regulated segment.Concerning to this technology, the dual-fuel engines applications have been seen boosted in the last times, mainly by economic benefits associated with the lowest operating cost and flexibility characteristics, however the economic attractiveness (economic benefits resulting from lower operating costs) will depend largely from the total amount of diesel fuel that will be displaced by natural gas in a operation and of course depend from the differential price between them, a dual fuel engine properly developed and adequately applied in the final use, could replace a conventional diesel engine in almost every uses and applications, especially when the limitations associated with the gaseous fuel transport can be resolved easily, the dual fuel engines are extensively used in stationary applications such as power generation.The main conclusions of the study, in the case of PMGD (small media distributed generators) with Bi-fuel engines, would be forced to bet the marginal cost of electricity, which it has hourly variation, that are due to their high operating costs greater than stabilized price, of the deterministic economic analysis, the PMGD with Bi-Fuel technology has positive results, however this result is strongly conditioned to market assumptions variables (discussed ex post as the 2015 marginal cost of electricity on Polpaico bar), the sensitizing and the stochastic analysis of the main variables, show results where the distribution of probabilities took about 46% negative values which implies a high risk for PMGD case.The supply under a PPA contract for unregulated customer vs peak shaving, cannot glimpse clear economic advantages, the economic benefits will be obtain only when the investment was taken as a sunk cost. due to the results can vary with the electrical behavior of the client and its load curve, the economic feasibility of the peak shaving, load modulation or other options to reduce the peak power must be evaluated case by case.Finally, the technical and economic analysis results, for PMGD, peak shaving or self-production, shows a panorama where the Bi-Fuel technology as an energy source even though it represents some small advantages compared to their peer technologies (diesel and natural gas), all generation technologies based on internal combustion engines, have very limited competition in the electricity market, mainly due to the high dependence on the fuel price highly variable and its associated volatility.Of course it must be recognized that it is possible that Bi-Fuel technology can be competitive in particular scenarios, such as when the connection costs to commercial utility are higher compared to continuous use of generators based MCI, another possible scenario is that due to environmental problems diesel engines have restrictions on the peak shaving operation in areas with air pollution problems, and that the Bi-fuel engines as a result of operation with both fuels (diesel & GN) therefore having lower emissions can operate, thereby would be generated a potential market for this technology.The main risk factors identified for dual fuel technology vary according to the scenarios evaluated namely PMGD, peak shaving or self-production. Among these main risk factors are the operational risks such as hours of operation, and market risk factors such as variable costs of fuel, marginal cost of electricity in the injection bar, The operating hours and the marginal cost of electricity, represent the direct economic earnings for the PMGD, the difficult determination of the operating hours at a convenient marginal cost of electricity represent a high risk.To the cost side, as the main risk factor are the fuel variable costs, which in Chile inevitably depend on the international market due to high rates of fuel import, the fuel price is variable and volatile this involves high risk for future economic result, mainly for PMGD options and self-production, in the particular case of natural gas and / or LNG is required contract negotiations usually long-term type for large volumes of consumption, where the main role of the contracts is mitigation and risk transfer, the contracts tend to be highly inflexible, rates and indexations clauses like a Take or Pay which also represents a high risk factor.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
CENTRAL DE GENERACION , DOBLE COMBUSTIBLE , MOTORES DE COMBUSTION INTERNA
