Publication: EL PENDULO DE LAS EXPECTATIVAS
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Date
2015-11
Authors
ASTUDILLO DEL RIO, SEBASTIAN MAXIMILIANO
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Abstract
El desarrollo de este trabajo como Tesis para optar al grado de Magister en Gestión
Empresarial (MBA) aborda dos ciclos temporales, el primero hasta junio del 2013 sobre la
crisis de la Unión Europea y los efectos que tengan las decisiones que adopten quienes
dirigen esta organización, su parlamento, consejo de ministros y los gobernantes de los
países miembros para la situación económica de dicha zona y especialmente en Chile para
el Cobre, considerando como métrica principal la política monetaria adoptada durante el
primer periodo de análisis, en un contexto global, donde, además los acontecimientos
pasados y futuros de las economías consolidadas y emergentes fuera de la Unión Europea
juegan un papel importante a considerar. El segundo periodo a analizar es la misma
situación descrita pero hasta agosto del presente año utilizando la misma metodología para
ambos casos y realizando una hipótesis por período.
El presente trabajo avanza por 6 capítulos para contextualizar el análisis, dar a conocer las
situaciones históricas y actuales además del capítulo 7 para enmarcar los datos obtenidos
como bibliografía y el último capítulo para adjuntar los respaldos más significativos como
anexos.
El tema es llamado “el péndulo de las expectativas” y se refiere al movimiento oscilatorio
simple, de los acontecimientos económicos externos e internos para una vez conocidos y
analizados definir el mejor movimiento de dicho péndulo usando como métrica principal la
Política Monetaria adoptada por el Banco Central de Chile en los dos periodos.
Todo lo anterior se inicia con el marco teórico que clarifica hacia donde apunta el presente
trabajo de título y da el contexto a analizar, donde, se realizarán durante el desarrollo del
presente trabajo de título dos hipótesis iguales cualitativamente separadas por los periodos
analizados utilizando la Política Monetaria del Banco Central de Chile como métrica, estas,
cambian cuantitativamente dado que hasta el 2013 como primera hipótesis para el mes de
junio se infiere que sería distinta al 5% y para la segunda hipótesis se establece que la
política monetaria del mes de diciembre del 2015, la cual será dada a conocer en el último
informe del presente año, será distinta al 3,25%.
Finalmente se concluye sobre ambas hipótesis y los escenarios inferidos para el primer
periodo e hipotéticos estados para el segundo periodo llegando a notar que han cambiado
en forma significativa las condiciones que se estimaban normales o constantes para el
mercado del Cobre a nivel externo e interno, dando paso a decisiones de política monetaria
entre ambos periodos del análisis más conservadoras a fin de cumplir el objetivo principal
del Banco Central de Chile de controlar la inflación en torno al 3%.
The development of this work as a thesis for the degree of Master of Business Administration (MBA) addresses two time cycles, the first until June 2013 on the crisis in the European Union and the effects that their decisions are those who lead this organization, parliament, council of ministers and the governors of the member countries for the economic situation of the region and especially in Chile for copper, considering as main metric monetary policy adopted during the first period of analysis, in a global context, where also past and future developments of consolidated and emerging economies outside the European Union play an important role to consider. The second period to analyze is the same situation described but until August this year using the same methodology for both cases and making a hypothesis period. This paper advances by 6 chapters to contextualize the analysis, to present the historical and current situations in addition to Chapter 7 to frame data as the final chapter bibliography and to attach the most significant backups as annexes. The theme is called "the pendulum of expectations" and refers to the simple oscillatory motion of the external and internal economic developments for a known time and analyzed to define the best move of the pendulum using as the main metric monetary policy adopted by the Bank Central Chile in the two periods. All this starts with the theoretical framework that clarifies where it points this job title and gives context to analyze where they were held during the development of this work title two equal hypothesis qualitatively separated by periods analyzed using Policy monetary Central Bank of Chile as a metric, these, as quantitatively change until 2013 as first hypothesis for the month of June is inferred that would be different at 5% and for the second hypothesis states that monetary policy for the month of December 2015, which will be released in the latest report of this year will be different to 3.25%. Finally we conclude about both hypotheses and inferred scenarios for the first period and hypothetical statements for the second period coming to notice that have significantly changed the conditions that were considered normal or constant for the copper market externally and internally, giving step to monetary policy decisions between the two periods of more conservative in order to fulfill the main goal of the Central Bank to control inflation at around 3% analysis.
The development of this work as a thesis for the degree of Master of Business Administration (MBA) addresses two time cycles, the first until June 2013 on the crisis in the European Union and the effects that their decisions are those who lead this organization, parliament, council of ministers and the governors of the member countries for the economic situation of the region and especially in Chile for copper, considering as main metric monetary policy adopted during the first period of analysis, in a global context, where also past and future developments of consolidated and emerging economies outside the European Union play an important role to consider. The second period to analyze is the same situation described but until August this year using the same methodology for both cases and making a hypothesis period. This paper advances by 6 chapters to contextualize the analysis, to present the historical and current situations in addition to Chapter 7 to frame data as the final chapter bibliography and to attach the most significant backups as annexes. The theme is called "the pendulum of expectations" and refers to the simple oscillatory motion of the external and internal economic developments for a known time and analyzed to define the best move of the pendulum using as the main metric monetary policy adopted by the Bank Central Chile in the two periods. All this starts with the theoretical framework that clarifies where it points this job title and gives context to analyze where they were held during the development of this work title two equal hypothesis qualitatively separated by periods analyzed using Policy monetary Central Bank of Chile as a metric, these, as quantitatively change until 2013 as first hypothesis for the month of June is inferred that would be different at 5% and for the second hypothesis states that monetary policy for the month of December 2015, which will be released in the latest report of this year will be different to 3.25%. Finally we conclude about both hypotheses and inferred scenarios for the first period and hypothetical statements for the second period coming to notice that have significantly changed the conditions that were considered normal or constant for the copper market externally and internally, giving step to monetary policy decisions between the two periods of more conservative in order to fulfill the main goal of the Central Bank to control inflation at around 3% analysis.
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Keywords
POLÍTICA MONETARIA