Publication: ANÁLISIS Y PROPUESTA DE MEJORA DEL PLAN NACIONAL DE MITIGACIÓN DE GASES DE EFECTO INVERNADERO EN EL SECTOR ENERGÍA
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Date
2018
Authors
SANCHEZ WOLF, MARISOL MARCELA
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Abstract
La dependencia de combustibles fósiles para abastecer las necesidadesenergéticas actuales genera Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI), los cuales seacumulan en la atmósfera y provocan un aumento global de la temperatura de latierra. Por esta razón, a nivel mundial se han propuesto distintas medidas demitigación y adaptación que permitan mejorar la calidad de vida de las personas ydetener el aumento de temperatura global.En 1995, bajo el sistema de las Conferencias de las Partes (COP), los paísesiniciaron negociaciones para fortalecer la respuesta mundial al cambio climático.Bajo este contexto, el encuentro en Copenhague (2009), COP 15, surge la iniciativade favorecer la estabilización del clima, con un aumento máximo de 2°C sobre latemperatura preindustrial (1750).El gran reto de la Conferencia de las Partes - COP21 - de París fue renovar elcompromiso iniciado en Kyoto y aprobar un acuerdo vinculante que reduzca lasemisiones y evite el aumento de la temperatura a más de 2 ºC. En el Acuerdo París(COP 21) Chile compromete reducir en un 30% la intensidad de emisiones, es decirbajar de 1,02 [tCO2e/MMCLP$]1 a 0,71 [tCO2e/MMCLP$]. Para el caso del sectorenergía se considera que la intensidad del sector según año 2007 corresponde a0,75 [tCO2e/MMCLP$], por lo que cumplir con la meta de un 30% correspondería aalcanzar una intensidad de 0,52 [tCO2e/MMCLP$].Dentro de este contexto, Chile ha presentado un plan de mitigación de emisionespara el sector energía denominado Plan Nacional. En la presente investigación seanaliza y desarrolla una propuesta de mejora al Plan Nacional basada en laexperiencia internacional.Bajo el contexto de políticas públicas, al ser compleja la transición hacia una formade desarrollo con menor intensidad en carbono, no existe una única política omedida que permita garantizar una mitigación de GEI del todo efectiva y queresuelva el problema del cambio climático. Así, una combinación de instrumentossuele ser la estrategia más utilizada por los distintos estados y partes involucradaspara enfrentar el cambio climático. Los instrumentos pueden orientarsedirectamente a la disminución de emisiones de CO2 o estar diseñados para lareducción del consumo energético, el cual logra disminuir las emisiones comoconsecuencia.Dentro de las políticas públicas implementadas por el gobierno de Chile, seencuentra la norma de emisiones a las centrales termoeléctricas que si bien noestablece un límite explícito de emisiones de GEI, constituye un instrumento a travésdel cual es posible fijar estándares para centrales termoeléctricas que resultenmenores en emisiones de GEI.Una segunda política corresponde a la ley 20/25 (Nº 20.698) de energías renovablesno Convencionales donde no se distingue entre distintas tecnologías y cada unatiene requerimientos diferentes para impulsar su desarrollo. Por otro lado las cuotasque establece la ley no son representativas y pueden duplicarse a fines del 2024.Finalmente son los generadores los que deciden si compran energía con ERNC opagan la multa.Una tercera política corresponde a la Ley 20.780 (Art. 8) basada en los impuestosa las emisiones, que pueden promover la sustitución de productos, cambios en lasestructuras de producción de energía y fomentar el ahorro energético, así como lainversión en mejora de la eficiencia energética. Sin embargo, una de las desventajasde este impuesto que se visualizan en el corto plazo corresponde al aumento de losprecios de los productos relacionados, y por ende los costos de las empresas,debilitando la competitividad de las industrias intensivas en energía limitando elcrecimiento económico.Dentro de los resultados, se determinó que las medidas propuestas en este plan noson suficientes para cumplir con los compromisos de reducción de emisionesadquiridos por Chile en la COP 21 y que se debe hacer esfuerzos adicionales. Paraesto se propone mejorar los estándares de eficiencias en plantas térmicas, tomarcomo base el sistema de comercio de la Unión Europea (EU ETS) y establecernuevas políticas que desalienten el uso de autos convencionales y promuevan laelectromovilidad.De la experiencia internacional, se infiere que los impuestos al carbono, no es unamedida efectiva para la mitigación de GEI, ya que es de difícil contrastación. Envarios casos no hay efectos relevantes, ni es posible establecer certeza entre lareducción de emisiones y la existencia del impuesto. En un informe elaborado porel Banco Mundial, se señala que en los países donde se ha logrado reducciones deemisiones de carbono, los esquemas de impuestos al carbono se hancomplementado con otras medidas como es la fijación de estándares de emisión.Del análisis MACC se infiere que las medidas más costo-eficientes corresponden alas asociadas al sector transporte en las que se encuentra la electro movilidad detaxis y vehículos livianos. Sin embargo, cabe destacar la necesidad de enfocar losesfuerzos para eliminar las barreras a la implementación de las medidas más costoefectivas,que en su conjunto generarían un beneficio económico neto y permitiríancumplir con los compromisos internacionales al menor costo posible.Electrificar el transporte y la calefacción en hogares, así como otros usosindustriales que pueda tener la electricidad, se torna interesante cumplir con lareducción de GEI. Se observa un punto importante en el transporte, no sólo porfomentar la electrificación masiva de los distintos medios, sino también, porpromover un cambio a modos de transporte más sustentables y bajos en emisiones.Sin embargo, se debe tener en consideración como afecta al desempleo, ya que lostalleres que existen hoy en día quedarán vacantes debido a la disminución a largo plazo de los automóviles convencionales.En base a la experiencia internacional se observa que la tendencia a futuro en uncorto plazo se basa en la mejora de las plantas térmicas con el retiro de unidadesmuy antiguas e ineficientes, las mejoras operacionales en equipos críticos y lafijación de estándares de eficiencia para plantas nuevas.Finalmente el sistema que tiene la Unión Europea EU ETS, es un sistema que tienela ventaja en que se fija el límite máximo por industria lo que asegura y obliga a unareducción de emisiones de GEI y no se centra sólo en las centrales termoeléctricas,sino que abarca todas las industrias.
The reliance on fossil fuels to supply current energy needs generates greenhousegases (GHG), which accumulates in the atmosphere causing a global rise of theearth temperatura. Because of this, the whole world there have been proposedseveral mitigation and adaptation measures in order to improve people quality of lifeand stop the increase of global temperature.In 1995, under the system of Conferences of the Parties (COP), countries begannegotiations to strengthen the global response to climate change. In this context, atthe meeting of Copenhagen at 2009 (COP 15), arises the initiative in favor of thestabilization of the climate, inside a range of 2°c as a maximum increase above thepre-industrial temperature (1750).The biggest challenge of Paris Conference of the Parties - COP21 - it were to renewthe commitment initiated in Kyoto and to approve a binding agreement to reducesemissions and to avoid the increase in temperature more than 2 ºC. In the ParisAgreement (COP 21), Chile commits to reduce the intensity of emissions by 30%,that is, to decrease from 1,02 [tCO2e / MMCLP $] to 0,71 [tCO2e / MMCLP $]. In thecase of the energy sector, it is considered that the intensity of emission to the year2007 corresponds to 0,75 [tCO2e / MMCLP $], therefore in order to reach the target,the intensity of emission should be 0,52 [tCO2e / MMCLP $].Within this context, Chile has presented an emission mitigation plan for the energysector called the National Plan. In this research, an improvement proposal to theNational Plan based on international experience it is analyzed and developed.In the context of public policies, due the complexity of the transition to a kind ofdevelopment with lower carbon intensity, there is not a single policy or measure to guarantee effectiveness in GHG mitigation or to solve the problem of climate change.Thus, between the different countries and parties involved a combination ofinstruments is usually the strategy mostly applied to face climate change.Instruments can be directly oriented to the reduction of CO2 emissions or bedesigned for the reduction of the energy consumption, which manages to reduceemissions as a consequence.Among the public policies implemented by the government of Chile, there is theemission standard for thermoelectric power plants that, although it does not establishan explicit GHG emission limit, constitutes an instrument through which it is possibleto set standards to regulate thermoelectric plants that has as a result lower GHGemissions.A second policy corresponds to the law 20/25 (No. 20.698) of non-conventionalrenewable energies where there is no distinction between different technologies andeach one has different requirements to promote its development. On the other hand,the quotas established by the law are not representative and could be duplicated bythe end of 2024. Finally, are the generators who decide whether buy energy withNCRE or pay the fines.A third policy it refers to Law 20.780 (Article 8) based on emissions taxes, which canpromote the substitution of products, changes in energy production structures andencourage energy savings, as well as investment on improving energy efficiency.However, one of the disadvantages of this tax seen in the short term corresponds tothe increase on prices of related products, and therefore the companies costs,weakening the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries putting and overalllimit to economic growth.Within the results, it was determinated that the measures proposed in this plan arenot sufficient to fulfill the commitments of emission reduction acquired by Chile alCOP 21 and those additional efforts must be made. For this, it is proposed toimproved the efficiency standards in thermal facilities, based on the EuropeanUnion´s trade system (EU ETS) and establish new policies that discourage the useof conventional cars and promote electromobility.From international experience, it is inferred that carbon taxes are not an effectivemeasurement for GHG mitigation, because it is too difficult to be tested. In severalcases, there are no relevant effects, nor is it possible to establish certainty betweenthe reduction of emissions and the existence of the tax. In a report developed by theWorld Bank, it is pointed out that in countries where carbon emission reductionshave been achieved, carbon tax schemes have been complemented with other measures such as the setting of emission standards.From the MACC analysis it is inferred that the most cost-efficient measurementscorrespond to those associated to the transport sector in which could be mentionedthe electromobility of taxis and light vehicles. However, it is worth mentioning theneed to points efforts to eliminate barriers to the implementation of more costeffectivemeasures, which together would generate a net economic benefit andwould allow to meet international commitments at the lowest possible cost.Electrify transport and house heating, as well as other industrial uses that may useelectricity, it becomes interesting to fulfill with the reduction of GHG. An importantpoint is viewed in the transport sector, not only to promote the massive electrificationof different means, but also, to promote a change to more sustainable and lowemissions transport ways. However, it must be taken into account how this impactson unemployment, since the workshops that exist today will be vacant due to thelong-term decline of conventional cars.Based on international experience, it is observed that the short-term future trend itis based on the improvement of thermal plants with the removal of very old andinefficient units, operational improvements in critical equipment and the setting ofefficiency standards for new plants.Finally, the system that has the European Union EU ETS, is a system that has theadvantage that sets the maximum limit per industry which ensures and requires areduction in GHG emissions and it is not focused only on thermoelectric plants, butIt covers all industries.
The reliance on fossil fuels to supply current energy needs generates greenhousegases (GHG), which accumulates in the atmosphere causing a global rise of theearth temperatura. Because of this, the whole world there have been proposedseveral mitigation and adaptation measures in order to improve people quality of lifeand stop the increase of global temperature.In 1995, under the system of Conferences of the Parties (COP), countries begannegotiations to strengthen the global response to climate change. In this context, atthe meeting of Copenhagen at 2009 (COP 15), arises the initiative in favor of thestabilization of the climate, inside a range of 2°c as a maximum increase above thepre-industrial temperature (1750).The biggest challenge of Paris Conference of the Parties - COP21 - it were to renewthe commitment initiated in Kyoto and to approve a binding agreement to reducesemissions and to avoid the increase in temperature more than 2 ºC. In the ParisAgreement (COP 21), Chile commits to reduce the intensity of emissions by 30%,that is, to decrease from 1,02 [tCO2e / MMCLP $] to 0,71 [tCO2e / MMCLP $]. In thecase of the energy sector, it is considered that the intensity of emission to the year2007 corresponds to 0,75 [tCO2e / MMCLP $], therefore in order to reach the target,the intensity of emission should be 0,52 [tCO2e / MMCLP $].Within this context, Chile has presented an emission mitigation plan for the energysector called the National Plan. In this research, an improvement proposal to theNational Plan based on international experience it is analyzed and developed.In the context of public policies, due the complexity of the transition to a kind ofdevelopment with lower carbon intensity, there is not a single policy or measure to guarantee effectiveness in GHG mitigation or to solve the problem of climate change.Thus, between the different countries and parties involved a combination ofinstruments is usually the strategy mostly applied to face climate change.Instruments can be directly oriented to the reduction of CO2 emissions or bedesigned for the reduction of the energy consumption, which manages to reduceemissions as a consequence.Among the public policies implemented by the government of Chile, there is theemission standard for thermoelectric power plants that, although it does not establishan explicit GHG emission limit, constitutes an instrument through which it is possibleto set standards to regulate thermoelectric plants that has as a result lower GHGemissions.A second policy corresponds to the law 20/25 (No. 20.698) of non-conventionalrenewable energies where there is no distinction between different technologies andeach one has different requirements to promote its development. On the other hand,the quotas established by the law are not representative and could be duplicated bythe end of 2024. Finally, are the generators who decide whether buy energy withNCRE or pay the fines.A third policy it refers to Law 20.780 (Article 8) based on emissions taxes, which canpromote the substitution of products, changes in energy production structures andencourage energy savings, as well as investment on improving energy efficiency.However, one of the disadvantages of this tax seen in the short term corresponds tothe increase on prices of related products, and therefore the companies costs,weakening the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries putting and overalllimit to economic growth.Within the results, it was determinated that the measures proposed in this plan arenot sufficient to fulfill the commitments of emission reduction acquired by Chile alCOP 21 and those additional efforts must be made. For this, it is proposed toimproved the efficiency standards in thermal facilities, based on the EuropeanUnion´s trade system (EU ETS) and establish new policies that discourage the useof conventional cars and promote electromobility.From international experience, it is inferred that carbon taxes are not an effectivemeasurement for GHG mitigation, because it is too difficult to be tested. In severalcases, there are no relevant effects, nor is it possible to establish certainty betweenthe reduction of emissions and the existence of the tax. In a report developed by theWorld Bank, it is pointed out that in countries where carbon emission reductionshave been achieved, carbon tax schemes have been complemented with other measures such as the setting of emission standards.From the MACC analysis it is inferred that the most cost-efficient measurementscorrespond to those associated to the transport sector in which could be mentionedthe electromobility of taxis and light vehicles. However, it is worth mentioning theneed to points efforts to eliminate barriers to the implementation of more costeffectivemeasures, which together would generate a net economic benefit andwould allow to meet international commitments at the lowest possible cost.Electrify transport and house heating, as well as other industrial uses that may useelectricity, it becomes interesting to fulfill with the reduction of GHG. An importantpoint is viewed in the transport sector, not only to promote the massive electrificationof different means, but also, to promote a change to more sustainable and lowemissions transport ways. However, it must be taken into account how this impactson unemployment, since the workshops that exist today will be vacant due to thelong-term decline of conventional cars.Based on international experience, it is observed that the short-term future trend itis based on the improvement of thermal plants with the removal of very old andinefficient units, operational improvements in critical equipment and the setting ofefficiency standards for new plants.Finally, the system that has the European Union EU ETS, is a system that has theadvantage that sets the maximum limit per industry which ensures and requires areduction in GHG emissions and it is not focused only on thermoelectric plants, butIt covers all industries.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
COP21 , EU ETS , GASES DE EFECTO INVERNADERO , PLAN DE MITIGACION