Thesis ANÁLISIS ECONOMÉTRICO DE LA INDUSTRIA AERONÁUTICA CHILENA EN LA ÚLTIMA DÉCADA
Date
2019-10
Authors
FAUVET MONTENEGRO, MELISSA CECILIA
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Abstract
Esta memoria tiene como objetivo establecer cuáles son los factores económicos y sociales que influyen el tráfico de pasajeros tanto nacionales como internacionales, con el fin de obtener un modelo econométrico para la proyección de demanda. Para esto fue necesaria la selección de información de diferentes fuentes, donde la principal fue la Junta de Aeronáutica Civil (JAC), que recolecta datos estadísticos de la industria aeronáutica del país, junto con esto, se toma como base el estudio de demanda realizado por esta misma entidad en el año 2013.
Los datos se trabajaron de manera mensual, y se construyeron tres modelos de econométricos: pasajeros nacionales, pasajeros internacionales llegados y pasajeros internacionales salidos. Para determinar qué variables afectan a cada uno de estos modelos se hicieron varias investigaciones llegando a obtener los siguientes factores como determinantes: IMACEC, IPC, tasa de desempleo, turismo, precio del petróleo, tipo de cambio, número de operaciones y factor de ocupación.
El modelo econométrico utilizado fue el de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO) con el cual se obtuvieron las variables que explicaban de mejor manera los modelos propuestos y estas fueron principalmente el IPC, las operaciones y el factor de ocupación. En todos los casos se obtuvo un error por sobre el 96%. Junto con esto las proyecciones realizadas para el año 2018 presentaron un error promedio respecto a los datos reales del -2% para el tráfico nacional, un 3% para el tráfico internacional llegados y un 4% para el tráfico de pasajeros internacional salidos.
Finalmente cabe destacar, que la economía tanto mundial como nacional ha estado en receso, y existen diversos factores internacionales como la presidencia en Estados Unidos y la crisis económica de Argentina que han generado impactos negativos en la industria, sin embargo, se prevé que esta siga en crecimiento debido a que existe un gran potencial de desarrollo.
The objective of this report is to establish the economic and social factors that influence both domestic and international passenger traffic, in order to obtain an econometric model for the projection of demand. For this it was necessary to select information from different sources, where the main one was the Junta de Aeronáutica Civil (JAC), which collects statistical data of the country's aeronautical industry, along with this, is based on the study of demand made by this entity in 2013. The data were worked on a monthly basis, and three econometric models were constructed: domestic passengers, arriving international passengers and departing international passengers. In order to determine which variables, affect each of these models, several investigations were carried out, obtaining the following factors as determining factors: IMACEC, IPC, unemployment rate, tourism, oil price, exchange rate, number of operations and load factor. The model used was the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with which the variables affecting the study models were obtained, where they explained the behavior of the dependent variable over 96% in all cases. Along with this, the projections made for 2018 showed an average error of -2% for domestic traffic, 3% for incoming international traffic and 4% for outgoing international passenger traffic. Finally, it should be noted that the global and national economy has been in recession, and there are several international factors such as the presidency in the US and the economic crisis in Argentina that have generated impacts on the industry, however, it is expected that it will continue to grow because there is a great potential for development.
The objective of this report is to establish the economic and social factors that influence both domestic and international passenger traffic, in order to obtain an econometric model for the projection of demand. For this it was necessary to select information from different sources, where the main one was the Junta de Aeronáutica Civil (JAC), which collects statistical data of the country's aeronautical industry, along with this, is based on the study of demand made by this entity in 2013. The data were worked on a monthly basis, and three econometric models were constructed: domestic passengers, arriving international passengers and departing international passengers. In order to determine which variables, affect each of these models, several investigations were carried out, obtaining the following factors as determining factors: IMACEC, IPC, unemployment rate, tourism, oil price, exchange rate, number of operations and load factor. The model used was the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with which the variables affecting the study models were obtained, where they explained the behavior of the dependent variable over 96% in all cases. Along with this, the projections made for 2018 showed an average error of -2% for domestic traffic, 3% for incoming international traffic and 4% for outgoing international passenger traffic. Finally, it should be noted that the global and national economy has been in recession, and there are several international factors such as the presidency in the US and the economic crisis in Argentina that have generated impacts on the industry, however, it is expected that it will continue to grow because there is a great potential for development.
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Keywords
AEROLÍNEAS ADMINISTRACIÓN , MODELOS MATEMÁTICOS , MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS