Thesis CRISIS GRIEGA: ORIGEN, CONSECUENCIAS Y APRENDIZAJES
Date
2017
Authors
MOYLA NEGRETE, RODRIGO ALEJANDRO
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
La crisis de la deuda soberana de Grecia ha sido desde el año 2009 hasta hoy el proceso que da luces de cómo camina la Zona Euro, no solo en los aspectos económicos sino también sociales, políticos y gubernamentales.El presente trabajo entrega al lector un contexto a la Crisis Griega y los rescates, buscando dar cronología, clasificación y correlación a los “hechos relevantes” (económicos, financieros, sociales, políticos) ocurridos hasta mediados del 2016. Se encuentran correlaciones superiores al 62% sobre muestras de al menos 12 eventos relevantes (político/social vs económico/financiero).Además se desarrollan algunas causas de origen interno (Grecia) y otras de origen externo (Eurozona). También se describen y desarrollan los programas de rescate, tanto en alcance como en su contexto de origen. Posteriormente se exponen las consecuencias de largo plazo tanto para la economía interna como para los posibles “contagios” a otras economías de la UE, verificándose que índices como la prima de riesgo, bonos soberanos, relación Euro-Dólar y los Credit Defaul Swaps, son variables críticas para diagnosticar una “propagación”, las cuales, concluye el estudio que su impacto es acotado en el largo plazo. Finalmente se analiza desde un punto de vista de “lecciones aprendidas”, la crisis griega en la política interna de la Eurozona, y entregando un punto de vista desde económico considerando los efectos sociales y políticos, íntimamente relacionados, verificados en el presente trabajo.
Greece's sovereign debt crisis has been, from 2009 to today, the process that shows how the Eurozone walks, not only in economic but also social, political and governmental aspects.The present work gives the reader a context to the Greek Crisis and the rescues, seeking to give chronology, classification and correlation to the "relevant events" (economic, financial, social, political) that occurred until the middle of 2016. Correlations higher than 62% are found on samples of at least 12 relevant events (political / social vs. economic / financial).In addition some causes of internal origin (Greece) and others of external origin (Eurozone) are developed.Rescue programs are also described and developed, both in scope and context of origin. The long-term consequences for both the domestic economy and potential "contagion" to other EU economies are discussed below. Rates such as the risk premium, sovereign bonds, Euro-Dollar ratio and Credit Defaul Swaps are critical variables to diagnose a "propagation", which, concludes the study that its impact is bounded in the long term. Finally, from the point of view of "lessons learned", the Greek crisis in the internal politics of the Eurozone is analyzed, giving a point of view from an economical perspective considering the social and political effects, closely related, verified in the present work.
Greece's sovereign debt crisis has been, from 2009 to today, the process that shows how the Eurozone walks, not only in economic but also social, political and governmental aspects.The present work gives the reader a context to the Greek Crisis and the rescues, seeking to give chronology, classification and correlation to the "relevant events" (economic, financial, social, political) that occurred until the middle of 2016. Correlations higher than 62% are found on samples of at least 12 relevant events (political / social vs. economic / financial).In addition some causes of internal origin (Greece) and others of external origin (Eurozone) are developed.Rescue programs are also described and developed, both in scope and context of origin. The long-term consequences for both the domestic economy and potential "contagion" to other EU economies are discussed below. Rates such as the risk premium, sovereign bonds, Euro-Dollar ratio and Credit Defaul Swaps are critical variables to diagnose a "propagation", which, concludes the study that its impact is bounded in the long term. Finally, from the point of view of "lessons learned", the Greek crisis in the internal politics of the Eurozone is analyzed, giving a point of view from an economical perspective considering the social and political effects, closely related, verified in the present work.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
CRISIS DE DEUDA SOBERANA GRIEGA , PROGRAMAS DE RESCATE , ZONA EURO