Thesis PROPUESTA DE MODELO DE SUBASTA PARA MEJORAR EL SISTEMA DE SOBREVENTA DE PASAJES AÉREOS.
Date
2020-12
Authors
ORTIZ WÜRTH, TOMÁS FRANCISCO
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Abstract
La sobreventa de pasajes aéreos (u overbooking) consiste en vender más pasajes que la cantidad de asientos disponibles en un determinado vuelo. Para el mercado aerocomercial, esta es un práctica habitual y legal; nació porque las cancelaciones y no presentaciones de los pasajeros merman la productividad y rentabilidad de los vuelos. Gracias al overbooking los niveles de ocupación de las aeronaves aumentan, lo que propicia menores precios de pasajes para las personas, beneficiándose el mercado aerocomercial en su conjunto (Hananías, 2012).
Sin embargo, el overbooking puede ocasionar problemas, ya que, si se presentan más pasajeros que asientos disponibles, se requerirá de la denegación de embarque. De acuerdo con el Código Aeronáutico, en ese caso las aerolíneas deben buscar pasajeros que, mediante algún incentivo, acepten voluntariamente no tomar el vuelo. Si no consigue voluntarios suficientes, la compañía deberá obligar a cierta cantidad de pasajeros a no volar; lo que se conoce como denegación de embarque involuntaria. Cuando esto ocurre, el pasajero no recibe el servicio por el que pagó y la aerolínea puede ver dañada su imagen y reputación decae, lo que puede derivar en la pérdida de clientes y una baja en los ingresos.
Con el fin de evitar el problema de denegación de embarque involuntaria, en este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo de subasta de asientos basado en la teoría de subastas y en el modelo de “overbooking voluntario” (Dalalah, Ojiako, Chilulu, 2020), en el cual los pasajeros compran un pasaje a un valor menor que el precio promedio del vuelol, pero son voluntarios a la denegación de embarque. Para lograr su efectividad, este modelo apela a la voluntad de los pasajeros y la transparencia de las aerolíneas.
En la subasta, el pasajero compra un pasaje a un valor elegido entre un rango de precios, siempre menor al precio promedio tradicional. A los ganadores de la subasta se les asignará asiento, asegurándoles el embarque en el vuelo, mientras que los participantes restantes deberán ser voluntarios a una eventual denegación de embarque. Este modelo permite que personas, con distintas disposiciones a pagar, participen de la dinámica de sobreventa. Además, bajo este modelo el pasajero tiene mayor probabilidad de embarcar que bajo el modelo de overbooking voluntario, lo que también implica una mayor disposición a pagar.
El modelo de subasta logra maximizar el beneficio de la aerolínea para cada vuelo y, con ello, en base a la cantidad de asientos a subastar, se logra determinar la cantidad óptima de pasajes a sobrevender; lo que dependerá del valor de compensación en caso de denegación de embarque; a menor compensación, mayor cantidad de pasajes a sobrevender.
Por otro lado, mediante una encuesta, se estudia la percepción de las personas con respecto al overbooking y se estudia su comportamiento en un caso hipotético de subasta de asientos, analizando sus estrategias, si es que las hay. De este modo se evalúa la disposición de las personas a aceptar la práctica de overbooking con el fin de evitar las denegaciones de embarque involuntario.
Como resultado, se obtiene que un 49,7%de las personas considera “buena” la práctica de overbooking voluntario por sobre un 47,1% que reprueba cualquier práctica de overbooking; además, un 27,4% de los encuestados estarían dispuestos a participar en la dinámica de subasta de asientos. Basándose en estos datos, se infiere que la percepción de las personas sobre el overbooking mejora, lo que permite establecer que el modelo de subasta de asientos es viable y aceptrable para las personas.
En conclusión, el modelo de subasta de asientos fomenta la transparencia y cooperación entre pasajeros y aerolíneas y, de este modo puede evitar (o disminuir) los casos de denegación de embarque involuntaria, por lo que el modelo es una solución factible para el problema del overbooking en la aviación comercial.
The overselling of air tickets (or overbooking) consists of selling more tickets over the number of seats available on a flight. For the commercial aviation market, this is a common practice and legal used by airlines, since cancellations and no shows by passengers, reduce the productivity and profitability of flights, for this reason, thanks overbooking, the aircraft load factor increases, leading to lower ticket prices for passengers, benefiting the commercial aviation market as a whole (Hananías, 2012). Inspite of the above, overbooking can cause problems, because, when there are more passengers than available seats, it will require denial of boarding. First, according to Código Aeronáutico (chilean law), airlines must seek volunteers, through incentives, to agree not to board the flight. When not enough volunteers are found, the company must force a certain number of passengers not to fly, which is known as involuntary boarding denial, when this happens, the passengers does not receive the service they paid for and the airline image and reputation can be damaged, which can lead to loss of customers and lower revenue. In order to avoid the problem of involuntary boarding denial, a seat auction model is developed, based on auction theory and the “voluntary overbooking” model (Dalalah, Ojiako, Chilulu, 2020), in which , passengers buy a ticket at a lower price than the average selling price, in that case they are volunteers to be bumped. This model needs the will of the passengers and the transparency of the airlines for its effectiveness. At the auction, the passenger buys a ticket at a value chosen from a prices range, always lower than the average price. The winners of the auction will be assigned a seat, ensuring boarding, while the remaining participants must be volunteers for a possible denied boarding. This model allows people with dIfferent payment dispositions to participate in the overselling dynamic. Furthermore, under this model the passenger is more likely to board than under the voluntary overbooking model, which also means a greater willingness to pay. The auction model manages to maximize the profit of the airline for each flight and, with this, based on the number of seats to be auctioned, it is possible to achieve the optimal number of tickets to be oversold, the number of oversold tickets will depend on the price compensation in case of denied boarding, the les the compensation is, the greater the number of oversold tickets. On the other hand, through a survey, people’s perception On the other hand, through a survey, people’s perception of overbooking is studied and their behavior in a hypothetical case of seat auction is studied, analyzing strategies of them, if there are any. In this way, the willingness of people to accept the practice of overbooking is evaluated in order to avoid involuntary boarding denials. As a result, it is obtained that 49.7% of the people consider that the voluntary overbooking practice is "good.over 47.1% who disapprove any overbooking practice, in addition, 27.4% of the respondents would be willing to participate in the seat auction dynamics. With this, it is concluded that people’s perception of overbooking improves, which makes it possible to establish that the seat auction model can be able to work for people. With all of the above, the seat auction model encourages transparency and cooperation between passengers and airlines and, in this way, avoids (or decreases) the cases of involuntary boarding denials, so the model is a feasible solution for the problem of overbooking in commercial aviation market.
The overselling of air tickets (or overbooking) consists of selling more tickets over the number of seats available on a flight. For the commercial aviation market, this is a common practice and legal used by airlines, since cancellations and no shows by passengers, reduce the productivity and profitability of flights, for this reason, thanks overbooking, the aircraft load factor increases, leading to lower ticket prices for passengers, benefiting the commercial aviation market as a whole (Hananías, 2012). Inspite of the above, overbooking can cause problems, because, when there are more passengers than available seats, it will require denial of boarding. First, according to Código Aeronáutico (chilean law), airlines must seek volunteers, through incentives, to agree not to board the flight. When not enough volunteers are found, the company must force a certain number of passengers not to fly, which is known as involuntary boarding denial, when this happens, the passengers does not receive the service they paid for and the airline image and reputation can be damaged, which can lead to loss of customers and lower revenue. In order to avoid the problem of involuntary boarding denial, a seat auction model is developed, based on auction theory and the “voluntary overbooking” model (Dalalah, Ojiako, Chilulu, 2020), in which , passengers buy a ticket at a lower price than the average selling price, in that case they are volunteers to be bumped. This model needs the will of the passengers and the transparency of the airlines for its effectiveness. At the auction, the passenger buys a ticket at a value chosen from a prices range, always lower than the average price. The winners of the auction will be assigned a seat, ensuring boarding, while the remaining participants must be volunteers for a possible denied boarding. This model allows people with dIfferent payment dispositions to participate in the overselling dynamic. Furthermore, under this model the passenger is more likely to board than under the voluntary overbooking model, which also means a greater willingness to pay. The auction model manages to maximize the profit of the airline for each flight and, with this, based on the number of seats to be auctioned, it is possible to achieve the optimal number of tickets to be oversold, the number of oversold tickets will depend on the price compensation in case of denied boarding, the les the compensation is, the greater the number of oversold tickets. On the other hand, through a survey, people’s perception On the other hand, through a survey, people’s perception of overbooking is studied and their behavior in a hypothetical case of seat auction is studied, analyzing strategies of them, if there are any. In this way, the willingness of people to accept the practice of overbooking is evaluated in order to avoid involuntary boarding denials. As a result, it is obtained that 49.7% of the people consider that the voluntary overbooking practice is "good.over 47.1% who disapprove any overbooking practice, in addition, 27.4% of the respondents would be willing to participate in the seat auction dynamics. With this, it is concluded that people’s perception of overbooking improves, which makes it possible to establish that the seat auction model can be able to work for people. With all of the above, the seat auction model encourages transparency and cooperation between passengers and airlines and, in this way, avoids (or decreases) the cases of involuntary boarding denials, so the model is a feasible solution for the problem of overbooking in commercial aviation market.
Description
Keywords
PASAJES AÉREOS , EMBARQUE DE PASAJEROS , OVERBOOKING