Thesis ESTUDIO TÉCNICO, AMBIENTAL Y FINANCIERO DEL USO RESIDENCIAL DE PANELES SOLARES HÍBRIDOS EN CHILE PARA DIFERENTES PERFILES DE DEMANDA
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Date
2018
Authors
BALBOA SERRANO, FELIPE ALEJANDRO
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Abstract
El presente estudio se enmarca en la investigación y evaluación económica solar térmica y fotovoltaica
para 7 ciudades de Chile, elegidas estratégicamente debido a su ubicación geográfica, con el fin de determinar
la configuración de un módulo híbrido térmico fotovoltaico con sistema ON GRID optimizando su área
para maximizar el ahorro del ciclo de vida (LCS) utilizando algoritmos genéticos (AG) como método de
optimización implementado en MATLAB.
Son analizados 6 perfiles de consumo diferentes tanto para ACS como para la demanda de electricidad,
totalizando una configuración de 36 escenarios distintos y así evaluar su influencia en el resultado económico.
La evaluación financiera se considera un horizonte de evaluación de 20 años con una tasa de descuento del
10 %, además de considerar el efecto del Net Billing para inyectar a la red la energía que no se consume.
Los resultados arrojan que los perfiles que acumulan la demanda en las horas peak de radiación son los que
entregan mayor rendimiento financiero, observando el gran potencial que se tiene en la zona norte respecto a
las demás localidades del país.
En el consumo acumulado entre las 13:00 y 17:00 hrs (el perfil ACS 6) entregó los mejores resultados,
seguido de los perfiles 3 y 5, que también acumulan la demanda en las horas de mayor radiación, por otro
lado para los perfiles eléctricos se obtienen resultados similares, a pesar del efecto del Net Billing, el cual no
logra amortiguar los efectos de consumo fuera de las horas de radiación con la venta de los excesos a la red,
ya que ésta se realiza a precio nudo, 45% del valor de venta.
Posteriormente se hace un análisis de sensibilidad a las locaciones con mayor y menor LCS, aumentando
al crecer la demanda pero reduciendo la fracción solar, conjuntamente se hacen variar los parámetros
financieros, destacando la gran incidencia en los resultados de las tarifas de la energía auxiliar, completando
casi el 80% de la varianza en el escenario dinámico.
En el mejor de los casos, ubicado en Antofagasta, se logra obtener un LCS de $ 2.701.194, con una
inversión de $ 1.916.939 y un ratio SOI (veces que está la inversión en el ahorro) de 1,4, mientras que para
todas las ciudades evaluadas el proyecto en estricto rigor es rentable a los 20 años evaluados, siendo el peor
de los casos un LCS cercano a los $ 175.000.
This study is part of the research and economic evaluation of solar thermal and photovoltaic for 7 cities of Chile, strategically chosen due to its geographical location, in order to determine the configuration of a hybrid photovoltaic thermal module with ON GRID system optimizing its area for Maximize Life-Cycle Savings (LCS) using genetic algorithms (AG) as an optimization method implemented in MATLAB. 6 di erent consumption profiles are analyzed for both ACS and Electricity demand, totaling a configuration of 36 di erent scenarios and thus evaluating their influence on the economic result. The financial evaluation is considered a 20-year evaluation horizon with a 10% discount rate, in addition to considering the e ect of Net Billing to inject energy into the network that is not consumed. The results show that the profiles that accumulate the demand in the peak hours of radiation are the ones that deliver the highest financial performance, observing the great potential that exists in the northern zone with respect to the other localities of the country. In the accumulated consumption between 13:00 and 17:00 hrs (profile ACS 6) gave the best results, followed by profiles 3 and 5, which also accumulate demand in the hours of highest radiation, on the other hand for electrical profiles obtain similar results, despite the e ect of Net Billing, which does not manage to dampen the e ects of consumption outside the hours of radiation with the sale of the excesses to the network, since this is done at a fixed price, 45% of the sale value. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is made to the locations with higher and lower LCS, increasing the LCS by increasing the demand but reducing the solar fraction, jointly changing the financial parameters, highlighting the high incidence in the results of the energy tari s. auxiliary, completing almost 80% of the variance in the dynamic scenario. In the best case, located in Antofagasta, it is possible to obtain an LCS of $ 2,701,194, with an investment of $ 1,916,939 and an SOI ratio (times the investment is in savings) of 1.4 , while for all cities evaluated the project in strict rigor is profitable after 20 years evaluated, the worst case being an LCS close to $ 175,000.
This study is part of the research and economic evaluation of solar thermal and photovoltaic for 7 cities of Chile, strategically chosen due to its geographical location, in order to determine the configuration of a hybrid photovoltaic thermal module with ON GRID system optimizing its area for Maximize Life-Cycle Savings (LCS) using genetic algorithms (AG) as an optimization method implemented in MATLAB. 6 di erent consumption profiles are analyzed for both ACS and Electricity demand, totaling a configuration of 36 di erent scenarios and thus evaluating their influence on the economic result. The financial evaluation is considered a 20-year evaluation horizon with a 10% discount rate, in addition to considering the e ect of Net Billing to inject energy into the network that is not consumed. The results show that the profiles that accumulate the demand in the peak hours of radiation are the ones that deliver the highest financial performance, observing the great potential that exists in the northern zone with respect to the other localities of the country. In the accumulated consumption between 13:00 and 17:00 hrs (profile ACS 6) gave the best results, followed by profiles 3 and 5, which also accumulate demand in the hours of highest radiation, on the other hand for electrical profiles obtain similar results, despite the e ect of Net Billing, which does not manage to dampen the e ects of consumption outside the hours of radiation with the sale of the excesses to the network, since this is done at a fixed price, 45% of the sale value. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is made to the locations with higher and lower LCS, increasing the LCS by increasing the demand but reducing the solar fraction, jointly changing the financial parameters, highlighting the high incidence in the results of the energy tari s. auxiliary, completing almost 80% of the variance in the dynamic scenario. In the best case, located in Antofagasta, it is possible to obtain an LCS of $ 2,701,194, with an investment of $ 1,916,939 and an SOI ratio (times the investment is in savings) of 1.4 , while for all cities evaluated the project in strict rigor is profitable after 20 years evaluated, the worst case being an LCS close to $ 175,000.
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Keywords
ENERGIAS RENOVABLES , PANELES SOLARES HIBRIDOS , DEMANDA ENERGETICA