Thesis PROYECCIONES DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO EN CRECIDAS DE CUENCAS POCO INTERVENIDAS ENTRE LOS RÍOS ACONCAGUA Y CACHAPOAL
Date
2018
Authors
FUENTEALBA VALDÉS, ALEXANDER EUGENIO
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Los diseños hidrologicos de obras civiles, obras de riego, derechos de aguas concedidos, entre otros, basan sus calculos en estadística de caudales que se considera estacionaria. Estos ultimos años se ha hablado del cambio climatico que altera este paradigma, que nos hace replantearnos el problema de hacer proyecciones de caudales en el futuro. Este estudio evalua los potenciales impactos de cambio climático, proyectados al año 2100 en varias cuencas montañosas entre los ríos Aconcagua y Cachapoal. Estas cuencas son de gran importancia para el sistema socio-economico de Chile,ya que proveen de agua a mas de 8 millones de personas. El modelo hidrológico TUW utilizado, correctamente calibrado y validado puede simular la escorrentía de ríos, mediante la informacion deforzantes climaticas obtenidas de la base de datos CAMELS-CL del CR2. En una segunda etapa se perturban las forzantes climaticas con deltas obtenidos desde 5 modelos climaticos globales (GCM).Finalmente se obtienen los resultados de curvas de duración, promedios de caudales medios diarios y caudales de periodo de retorno alto en las cuencas con mejor ajuste del modelo. Estos resultados sugieren una disminución en la disponibilidad anual del recurso hdrico, cambio de regimen hídrico de las cuencas y una disminución en caudales de periodo de retorno alto.
Hydrological designs of civil works, irrigation systems, granted water rights, among others, basetheir calculations on ow statistics that are considered stationary. In recent years there has beentalk of climate change that alters this paradigm, which makes us rethink the problem of makingow projections into the future. This study evaluates the potential climate change impacts until2100 in several mountain basins between the Aconcagua and Cachapoal rivers. These basins are ofa great importance for the socio-economic system of Chile, since they provide water to more than 8million people. The TUW hydrological model used, correctly calibrated and validated, can simulatethe runo of rivers, through the information of climatic forcings obtained from the CAMELS-CLdatabase of CR2. In a second stage, climatic forcings are disturbed with deltas obtained from 5global climatic models (GCM). Finally, the results of duration curves, averages of mean daily owsand high return period ows are obtained in basins with the best t of the model. These resultssuggest a decrease in the annual availability of water resources, a change in the hydrological regimeof the basins and a decrease in ows of a high return period.
Hydrological designs of civil works, irrigation systems, granted water rights, among others, basetheir calculations on ow statistics that are considered stationary. In recent years there has beentalk of climate change that alters this paradigm, which makes us rethink the problem of makingow projections into the future. This study evaluates the potential climate change impacts until2100 in several mountain basins between the Aconcagua and Cachapoal rivers. These basins are ofa great importance for the socio-economic system of Chile, since they provide water to more than 8million people. The TUW hydrological model used, correctly calibrated and validated, can simulatethe runo of rivers, through the information of climatic forcings obtained from the CAMELS-CLdatabase of CR2. In a second stage, climatic forcings are disturbed with deltas obtained from 5global climatic models (GCM). Finally, the results of duration curves, averages of mean daily owsand high return period ows are obtained in basins with the best t of the model. These resultssuggest a decrease in the annual availability of water resources, a change in the hydrological regimeof the basins and a decrease in ows of a high return period.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
ANDES , CAMBIO CLIMATICO , MODELACION HIDROLOGICA , REGIMEN HIDROLOGICO