Thesis MODELO DE ESTIMACIÓN DE DEMANDA DE COMBUSTIBLE DEL AEROPUERTO AMB Y SU IMPACTO EN TÉRMINOS DE TRANSPORTE
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Date
2017
Authors
MANCILLA PINO, GUILLERMO LUIS
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Abstract
Durante los próximos 3 años, el Aeropuerto de Santiago Comodoro Arturo Merino Benítez tendrá un cambio sin precedentes. El actual terminal será ampliado para contar con mayor capacidad de atención de vuelos y pasajeros que embarcan y desembarcan. Además, sus servicios serán progresivamente digitalizados para disminuir los tiempos de espera en el proceso de los viajes. De esta manera, en 2020 se inaugurará el nuevo terminal internacional que ostentará más de 175.000 m2, aumentando la capacidad del aeropuerto a 30 millones de pasajeros al año, con un potencial de 50 millones.1Lo anterior, se llevará a cabo según lo estipulado en el proyecto de ampliación y mejoramiento del Aeropuerto Arturo Merino Benítez, el cual considera conceptos de integración territorial, innovación tecnológica, calidad de servicio, sustentabilidad e identidad regional.El presente estudio se relaciona con la importancia de contar con un instrumento metodológico lo suficientemente confiable que permita desarrollar la proyección de la demanda de Kerosene de Aviación Jet A1 en el largo plazo, considerando estadísticas de demanda por transporte aéreo de pasajeros y de carga, nacional e internacional en Chile, con el fin de dimensionar la capacidad del sistema de transporte de combustible.Los datos sobre el mercado aéreo utilizados en este estudio provienen principalmente de la Dirección de Aeronáutica Civil de Chile (DGAC), de las estadísticas publicadas por la Junta de Aeronáutica Civil (JAC) y del Ministerio de Obras Públicas. Para realizar el análisis de las estimaciones, se complementó la información con datos provenientes del Banco Central, del Banco Mundial, de la Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP), del Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (INE) y del Servicio Nacional de Aduanas, los cuales consideran la producción de la economía, el precio del petróleo , el turismo y las exportaciones por vía aérea.La construcción de un modelo que estime un comportamiento futuro es una tarea que considera variables económicas y propias del transporte aéreo. De esta forma, el contenido principal de este trabajo se divide en 8 capítulos, donde se presenta un estado actual del transporte del kerosene de aviación desde los puertos marítimos hasta el mismo aeropuerto, estadísticas de transporte aéreo de carga y pasajeros. Luego, el siguiente capítulo presenta la forma en la que se seleccionaron las variables involucradas y la formulación del modelo de estimación de demanda de combustible, que involucra el Producto Interno Bruto como variable indirecta y el transporte de carga y pasajeros expresados en ton-km y pax-km como variable directa explicativa.Finalmente, se presenta una discusión de los datos obtenidos, presentando los efectos en el transporte y abastecimiento de kerosene en el corto plazo según los resultados obtenidos y las conclusiones finales de este trabajo.
Over the next 3 years, the Santiago Comodoro Arturo Merino Benítez Airport will have an unprecedented change. The current terminal will be expanded to have greater capacity of attention of flights and passengers that embark and disembark. In addition, its services will be progressively digitized to reduce waiting times in the travel process. In this way, the new international terminal will be inaugurated in 2020 with more than 175,000 m2, increasing the capacity of the airport to 30 million passengers a year, with a potential of 50 million.This will be carried out as stipulated in the airport expansion and improvement project, which considers concepts of territorial integration, technological innovation, quality of service, sustainability and regional identity.The present study is related to the importance of having a methodological instrument that is reliable enough to develop the projection of Kerosene Aviation Jet A1 in the long term, considering statistics of demand for domestic and international air transportation in Chile, with the purpose of dimensioning the capacity of the transport system.The air market data used in this study were obtained mainly from the Civil Aviation Authority of Chile (DGAC), statistics published by the Civil Aviation Board (JAC), and the Ministry of Public Works. In order to analyze the estimates, the information was supplemented by data from the Central Bank, the World Bank, the National Petroleum Company (ENAP), the National Statistical Institute (INE) and the National Customs Service and, these institutions consider the production of the economy, the price of oil, tourism and exports by air.The construction of a model that estimates future behavior is a task that considers economic and air traffic variables. In this way, the main content of this work is divided into 8 chapters, which presents a current state of transportation of aviation kerosene from the sea ports to the airport, statistics of air cargo and passengers. Then, the next chapter presents the way in which the variables involved in the model and the formulation of the fuel demand estimation model were selected, which are depending on the Gross Domestic Product as indirect variable and the transport of cargo and passengers expressed in tons-km and pax-km as direct explanatory variables.Finally, is presented a discussion of the data obtained, the effects on the transportation of kerosene in the short term of the results obtained and the final conclusions of this work.
Over the next 3 years, the Santiago Comodoro Arturo Merino Benítez Airport will have an unprecedented change. The current terminal will be expanded to have greater capacity of attention of flights and passengers that embark and disembark. In addition, its services will be progressively digitized to reduce waiting times in the travel process. In this way, the new international terminal will be inaugurated in 2020 with more than 175,000 m2, increasing the capacity of the airport to 30 million passengers a year, with a potential of 50 million.This will be carried out as stipulated in the airport expansion and improvement project, which considers concepts of territorial integration, technological innovation, quality of service, sustainability and regional identity.The present study is related to the importance of having a methodological instrument that is reliable enough to develop the projection of Kerosene Aviation Jet A1 in the long term, considering statistics of demand for domestic and international air transportation in Chile, with the purpose of dimensioning the capacity of the transport system.The air market data used in this study were obtained mainly from the Civil Aviation Authority of Chile (DGAC), statistics published by the Civil Aviation Board (JAC), and the Ministry of Public Works. In order to analyze the estimates, the information was supplemented by data from the Central Bank, the World Bank, the National Petroleum Company (ENAP), the National Statistical Institute (INE) and the National Customs Service and, these institutions consider the production of the economy, the price of oil, tourism and exports by air.The construction of a model that estimates future behavior is a task that considers economic and air traffic variables. In this way, the main content of this work is divided into 8 chapters, which presents a current state of transportation of aviation kerosene from the sea ports to the airport, statistics of air cargo and passengers. Then, the next chapter presents the way in which the variables involved in the model and the formulation of the fuel demand estimation model were selected, which are depending on the Gross Domestic Product as indirect variable and the transport of cargo and passengers expressed in tons-km and pax-km as direct explanatory variables.Finally, is presented a discussion of the data obtained, the effects on the transportation of kerosene in the short term of the results obtained and the final conclusions of this work.
Description
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Keywords
AEROPUERTOS , KEROSENE DE AVIACION JET A1 , PROYECCION DE DEMANDA