Thesis PROPUESTA METODOLÓGICA PARA UN ESTUDIO DE PROSPECTIVA UTILIZANDO ARQUETIPOS Y DINÁMICA DE SISTEMAS. CASO APLICADO: MINERA CODELCO
Date
2017
Authors
VERA SOTO, PATRICIO GABRIEL
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Abstract
Los métodos prospectivos son aquellas herramientas que permiten reducir la incertidumbre del futuro, es por esta razón que son utilizadas en casi todos los campos de investigación. En este artículo se propone una metodología que combina 2 métodos: el sistema de arquetipos, que corresponde a estructuras genéricas que permiten enfrentar y modelar problemas de gestión y la dinámica de sistemas, que ofrece un soporte técnico a nivel computacional para poder evaluar diferentes escenarios, políticas o soluciones a problemas. Esta combinación permite agilizar el proceso de representación de situaciones problemáticas ya que se utilizan como arquetipos modelos y experiencias previas de otros autores, donde ya se habían validado las relaciones. Además, se corrobora que las propiedades de los arquetipos concuerdan con los requerimientos de la modelación deseada. La aplicación de esta metodología de prospectiva se hace específicamente creando un modelo que representa la minería chilena del cobre y que ofrece soporte a los procesos de toma de decisiones. Así se propone un modelo que considera los problemas mineros más básicos y que en unión con el sistema de arquetipos favorece el análisis de muchas otras situaciones. En particular, se presenta el análisis realizado en la empresa minera chilena estatal Codelco, sobre cómo actúa la producción y la inversión en la industria del cobre según la gobernabilidad y el estado del mercado del cobre, incluyendo en el modelo dichos comportamientos. Finalmente, se concluye con éxito la creación de un modelo y los análisis de los escenarios planteados, que establecen de manera clara y útil las propiedades de los arquetipos sistémicos.
This article proposes a combination of forecasting methods which allow to obtain a more holistic understanding about companies’ future, the article proposal combines 2 well known methods: (i) archetypes system, which corresponds to generic structures that allow to face and model management issues and (ii) system dynamics, which offers technical support at a computational level in order to assess different scenarios, politics or problem solutions. This combination enables to streamline the process of representing problematic situations to be forecast. The application this integrated proposal was validated by creating a model that represents Chilean copper mining company. Therefore is proposed a model that considers the most basic mining problems and that in joint with the archetype system promotes the analysis of several situations. In particular, it is presented the analysis performed in the Chilean mining company CODELCO about how the production and investments work in the copper industry according to governance and the state of the copper market, including in the model those behaviours. Finally, it is successfully concluded the creation of a model and the analysis of the proposed scenarios, which state clearly and usefully the properties of systemic archetypes.
This article proposes a combination of forecasting methods which allow to obtain a more holistic understanding about companies’ future, the article proposal combines 2 well known methods: (i) archetypes system, which corresponds to generic structures that allow to face and model management issues and (ii) system dynamics, which offers technical support at a computational level in order to assess different scenarios, politics or problem solutions. This combination enables to streamline the process of representing problematic situations to be forecast. The application this integrated proposal was validated by creating a model that represents Chilean copper mining company. Therefore is proposed a model that considers the most basic mining problems and that in joint with the archetype system promotes the analysis of several situations. In particular, it is presented the analysis performed in the Chilean mining company CODELCO about how the production and investments work in the copper industry according to governance and the state of the copper market, including in the model those behaviours. Finally, it is successfully concluded the creation of a model and the analysis of the proposed scenarios, which state clearly and usefully the properties of systemic archetypes.
Description
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Keywords
DINAMICA DE SISTEMAS , ESTUDIO DE PROSPECTIVA , MINERA CODELCO