Thesis ANÁLISIS DE LA DESPROPORCIONADA INSTALACIÓN DE ENERGÍAS RENOVABLES NO CONVENCIONALES EN EL NORTE DEL SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO CENTRAL CHILENO
Date
2017
Authors
MUTIS MAGAGNATO, RICARDO ANDRÉS
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Abstract
Aun cuando los primeros proyectos de Energías Renovables No Convencionales (ERNC) instalados en el Norte Chico se pusieron en servicio los años 2007 y 2009 (Proyecto Canela I con una potencia instalada de 18,15 MW y Proyecto Canela II con una potencia instalada de 60 MW), no fue hasta el año 2013 que se inició la puesta en servicio masiva de varios proyectos eólicos y solares en dicha zona.La instalación de este tipo de tecnologías en el Norte del país, se debe, entre otros, a los altos índices de irradiación solar y a las condiciones de viento existentes en el Norte Chico. Favoreció además a la instalación, la eliminación de los subsidios en Europa y EE.UU. a las tecnologías ERNC, lo que obligó a los fabricantes de estos equipos a buscar otros mercados como los sudamericanos.Por otra parte, la demanda de energía, en las regiones de Atacama y Coquimbo, asociada a potenciales proyectos mineros, junto con el rechazo a proyectos termoeléctricos (como Barrancones, Castilla, Punta Alcalde), hacía creer que, a partir del año 2015, habría estrechez en el abastecimiento eléctrico del Norte Chico.La cancelación de dichos proyectos termoeléctricos, el supuesto crecimiento de la demanda minera y las restricciones de Transmisión que limitaban la importación de energía desde el sur, pronosticaron erróneamente una falta de suministro eléctrico en la zona norte del SIC, anticipando, erróneamente también, altos costos marginales respecto del resto del sistema.Todo lo anterior, motivó una fuerte instalación de proyectos ERNC en el Norte Chico.Sin embargo, el desarrollo de proyectos mineros en el Norte Chico no fue como estaba previsto. Además, las capacidades de Transmisión de las líneas del norte del SIC tienen limitaciones lo que les impide exportar la totalidad de energía sobrante desde el Norte Chico a la Zona Centro - Sur del país.Debido a: i) la insuficiente capacidad de Transmisión; ii) el importante aporte ERNC durante el día; iii) la baja demanda dado que aún se mantienen postergados los proyectos mineros, se generan mercados desacoplados o no conectados a través de un sistema de Transmisión.Lo anterior, provoca Costos Marginales bajos, incluso 0, en las horas de máxima generación ERNC, lo que afecta principalmente a los generadores solares.Adicionalmente, la Central Guacolda, que posee una capacidad instalada de 760 MW, inyecta su energía en el Norte Chico. Durante el día, y dado que debe operar en la noche cuando no hay sol, a la central Guacolda se le instruye reducir su generación al Mínimo Técnico de 300 MW (ya que no puede detenerse pues debe estar operativa para cubrir el rápido descenso de generación de las plantas solares). Esa operación a Mínimo Técnico genera que energía renovable no se inyecte al sistema (y que por lo tanto se vierta).Las restricciones que las empresas ERNC han enfrentado para inyectar su producción al sistema han implicado la pérdida de energía eléctrica de bajo costo, generando perjuicios económicos tanto a los generadores ERNC como al sistema eléctrico en su conjunto, pues se impide la operación más económica.El escenario anterior ocasiona que generadores ERNC enfrenten una situación financiera compleja pues sus flujos no les permiten, en algunos casos, cubrir sus obligaciones (como es el pago de los intereses de la deuda).Lo anterior, es crítico para aquellas empresas que sólo venden su producción en el mercado spot. También es complejo para aquellos generadores ERNC que inyectan su energía en el Norte Chico y que tienen contratos con clientes en la zona centro (es decir retiran del sistema a Costos Marginales más altos).Debido a lo antes indicado, los bancos han establecido condiciones más rigurosas para el otorgamiento de financiamiento de proyectos ERNC. Actualmente los bancos sólo financian proyectos ERNC cuando existe un contrato de compra y venta de energía que permita al generador asegurar el pago da la deuda.Una vez finalizada la construcción de la línea de 500 kV que desarrolla la empresa INTERCHILE S.A. y una vez finalizada la línea que interconectará el SIC con el SING (desarrollada por TEN), se eliminarán los mercados aislados y sus consecuencias (Costos Marginales 0 en el Norte Chico debido a la sobre oferta de ERNC).La no generación de nuevos mercados desacoplados en el futuro dependerá de una adecuada planificación y de la construcción de nuevas líneas de Trasmisión, del crecimiento de la demanda y del crecimiento de la oferta de generación.
Even though the first Non-Conventional Renewable Energy projects (NCRE), installed in the north of the Central Chilean Transmission System (SIC), were commissioned between 2007 and 2009, it was not until 2013 when massive commissioning of wind and solar projects began in that area.The installation of this type of technology in the north of SIC was due, among others, the high solar irradiation rates and the good wind conditions. It also promoted the NCRE installation, the subsidies elimination to these technologies in Europe and USA, which forced manufacturers to look other markets like South America.On the other hand, the energy demand, in the Atacama and Coquimbo regions, related with future mining projects, together with the rejection of thermoelectric projects (such as Barrancones, Castilla, Punta Alcalde), led to the belief that, starting in 2015, there would be narrowness of electric supply in the norther SIC.The cancellation of these thermoelectric projects, the supposed growth of mining demand and the transmission restrictions that limited the import of energy from the south, mistakenly forecast a lack of electricity supply in the northern zone of the SIC, also mistakenly anticipated high marginal costs compared to the rest of the system.All the above-mentioned, motivated a strong installation of NCRE projects in the north of SIC.However, the development of mining projects was not as planned. In addition, the transmission capacities of the norther SIC’s lines have limitations, which prevent them to export surplus energy from the North to the Central - South Zone of the country.Due to: i) insufficient transmission capacity; ii) the important contribution of NCRE during the day; iii) low demand because mining projects are still postponed, electric markets are decoupled or not connected through a transmission system. This causes low Marginal Costs, even 0, during hours of maximum NCRE generation, which mainly affects solar generators.In addition, Guacolda power plant, which has an installed power of 760 MW, injects its energy into norther SIC. During the day, and given that it must operate at night when there is no sun, Guacolda power plant is instructed to reduce its generation to 300 MW (since it cannot be stopped as it must be operative to cover the rapid descent of solar plants generation). That operation at 300 MW generates that renewable energy is not injected to the system (therefore it is poured).The restrictions that NCRE companies have faced to inject their production into the system have involved the loss of low-cost electrical energy, generating economic damages to both NCRE generators and the entire electrical system, since the most economical operation is prevented.The previous scenario causes NCRE generators to face a complex financial situation because their flows do not allow them, in some cases, to cover their obligations (such as debt interest).This is especially complex for those companies that sell their production in the spot market. It is also complex for those NCRE generators that inject their energy in the norther SIC and have injection obligations with customers located in the central zone (they have to withdraw energy from the system at higher marginal costs).Due to the abovementioned, banks have established more rigorous conditions to finance ERNC projects. Currently banks are only financing NCRE projects when the owner has signed a Power Purchase Agreement that allows it to ensure debt payment.Once the construction of 500 KV transmission line has been completed and once the interconnection line, between SIC - SING has also been completed, the isolated markets and their consequences will be eliminated (Marginal Costs = 0 due to NCRE injection).The non-generation of new decoupled markets in the future will depend on adequate planning and on new transmission lines construction, the demand growth and the generation supply growth.
Even though the first Non-Conventional Renewable Energy projects (NCRE), installed in the north of the Central Chilean Transmission System (SIC), were commissioned between 2007 and 2009, it was not until 2013 when massive commissioning of wind and solar projects began in that area.The installation of this type of technology in the north of SIC was due, among others, the high solar irradiation rates and the good wind conditions. It also promoted the NCRE installation, the subsidies elimination to these technologies in Europe and USA, which forced manufacturers to look other markets like South America.On the other hand, the energy demand, in the Atacama and Coquimbo regions, related with future mining projects, together with the rejection of thermoelectric projects (such as Barrancones, Castilla, Punta Alcalde), led to the belief that, starting in 2015, there would be narrowness of electric supply in the norther SIC.The cancellation of these thermoelectric projects, the supposed growth of mining demand and the transmission restrictions that limited the import of energy from the south, mistakenly forecast a lack of electricity supply in the northern zone of the SIC, also mistakenly anticipated high marginal costs compared to the rest of the system.All the above-mentioned, motivated a strong installation of NCRE projects in the north of SIC.However, the development of mining projects was not as planned. In addition, the transmission capacities of the norther SIC’s lines have limitations, which prevent them to export surplus energy from the North to the Central - South Zone of the country.Due to: i) insufficient transmission capacity; ii) the important contribution of NCRE during the day; iii) low demand because mining projects are still postponed, electric markets are decoupled or not connected through a transmission system. This causes low Marginal Costs, even 0, during hours of maximum NCRE generation, which mainly affects solar generators.In addition, Guacolda power plant, which has an installed power of 760 MW, injects its energy into norther SIC. During the day, and given that it must operate at night when there is no sun, Guacolda power plant is instructed to reduce its generation to 300 MW (since it cannot be stopped as it must be operative to cover the rapid descent of solar plants generation). That operation at 300 MW generates that renewable energy is not injected to the system (therefore it is poured).The restrictions that NCRE companies have faced to inject their production into the system have involved the loss of low-cost electrical energy, generating economic damages to both NCRE generators and the entire electrical system, since the most economical operation is prevented.The previous scenario causes NCRE generators to face a complex financial situation because their flows do not allow them, in some cases, to cover their obligations (such as debt interest).This is especially complex for those companies that sell their production in the spot market. It is also complex for those NCRE generators that inject their energy in the norther SIC and have injection obligations with customers located in the central zone (they have to withdraw energy from the system at higher marginal costs).Due to the abovementioned, banks have established more rigorous conditions to finance ERNC projects. Currently banks are only financing NCRE projects when the owner has signed a Power Purchase Agreement that allows it to ensure debt payment.Once the construction of 500 KV transmission line has been completed and once the interconnection line, between SIC - SING has also been completed, the isolated markets and their consequences will be eliminated (Marginal Costs = 0 due to NCRE injection).The non-generation of new decoupled markets in the future will depend on adequate planning and on new transmission lines construction, the demand growth and the generation supply growth.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
ENERGIAS RENOVABLES NO CONVENCIONALES , ERNC , SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO CENTRAL CHILENO
