Thesis PREDICCIÓN DE INCENDIOS FORESTALES A TRAVÉS DE LA APLICACIÓN DE ÍNDICES METEOROLÓGICOS EN LA COMUNA DE VIÑA DEL MAR
Date
2016
Authors
RAMOS MARÍN, CAMILA ROCÍO
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Abstract
En Chile, CONAF mide la probabilidad de ocurrencia de incendio mediante el Índice de Grado de Peligro (IGP), una fórmula matemática basada principalmente en condiciones meteorológicas, el contenido de humedad de la vegetación y el efecto de las precipitaciones en días anteriores.Esta memoria tiene como finalidad principal desarrollar un Índice de Riesgo de Incendio Forestal como mejora al utilizado actualmente por CONAF, específicamente para aplicarlo sobre la comuna de Viña del Mar. Para esto, se realiza una investigación de Índices de Riesgo de Incendio Forestal utilizados a nivel internacional para ver si es factible su implementación en la comuna de estudio. Dentro de la investigación se estudian los distintos sistemas de clasificación de riesgo de incendio utilizados en Estados Unidos, Australia, Canadá, y el “Fire Potential Index” Europeo (FPI).En primer lugar, se lleva a cabo una verificación del IGP, basándose en un registro histórico de ocurrencia de incendios forestales entre las temporadas de incendio 2003 a 2014 proporcionado por CONAF y, la estadística meteorológica diaria para dichos eventos obtenida de la estación meteorológica Rodelillo, de la DMC. El IGP se puede aplicar de dos formas, la primera es utilizando su fórmula general (aplicable a todo el territorio chileno), y la segunda es usando la fórmula específica, aplicable a una zona determinada dentro de la cual se encuentra la comuna de Viña del Mar. En ambos casos, existe una clara sobreestimación de los incendios forestales pronosticados sobre los registrados, lo que lleva a intentar implementar otro sistema de clasificación de riesgo de incendio.Basándose en la investigación de índices y considerando aspectos como: información meteorológica disponible, facilidad de ejecución y a la cantidad de países bajo el que se aplica el índice, se decide verificar la validez del Sistema de Clasificación de Peligro de Incendio Canadiense (CFFDRS) en la comuna de Viña del Mar, el cual resulta en un índice meteorológico de peligro de incendio llamado “Fire Weather Index” (FWI). De igual forma como se hizo con el IGP, se realiza una verificación del FWI con los mismos datos de registro de incendios y variables meteorológicas. En este caso, la sobreestimación en el pronóstico de incendios aumenta considerablemente respecto a la obtenida con el IGP chileno.En este trabajo se propone una modificación del IGP específico, y dos métodos de modificación al FWI para finalmente, mediante un análisis comparativo, elegir el índice que mejor se adecúa a la zona en estudio. Los resultados indican que el índice que mejor funciona es el IGP específico modificado para la comuna de Viña del Mar, pues logra una leve disminución en la sobreestimación del pronóstico de incendios y además, aumenta el porcentaje de certeza en fechas de ocurrencia de incendio forestal.De manera adicional, se incorpora la implementación del “Fire Potential Index” (FPI) Europeo. Este método da la posibilidad de diferenciar la categoría de peligro de incendio según la vegetación presente, y por ende, se pueden definir los sectores más propensos a incendio en la zona de estudio.
In Chile, CONAF rates the probability of fire occurrence by an index called “Índice de Grado de Peligro (IGP)”, which is a numerical equation based mainly in meteorological conditions, vegetation moisture content and the effect of previous days rainfall.This work has the main purpose of develop a Wildfire Danger Index as an improvement of the actual one used by CONAF, specifically to apply it over the city of Viña del Mar. For this purpose, an investigation of Wildfire Danger Index used internationally is made to study the feasibility of implementation in the city of study. In this investigation, different fire danger rating systems are studied, such as the one in USA, Australia, Canada, and the European Fire Potential Index (FPI).First of all, the IGP index is verified, based on the historic record of wildfire occurrence between the fire seasons of 2003 to 2014, given by CONAF and, the daily meteorological statistics for those events, obtained from de meteorological station Rodelillo from the DMC. The IGP can be applied in two ways, the first one is by using its general equation (applicable for the whole Chilean territory), and the second one is by using the specific equation, applicable to a zone in which Viña del Mar belongs to. In both cases, there is a clear overestimation of forecasted wildland fire over registered fires, which leads to try the implementation of another fire danger rating system.Based on the investigation of indexes and considering aspects as: available meteorological information, ease of execution and the quantity of country that applies the index, it is decided to implement the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) in the city of Viña del Mar, which results in a meteorological Index called Fire Weather Index (FWI). In the same way that it was done with the IGP, it is made a verification of the FWI with the same records and meteorological variables. In this case, the overestimation in fire forecast is much higher than the one obtained by the Chilean IGP.In this work, it is proposed a modification of the specific IGP, and two modification methods for the FWI to finally, by a comparative analysis, choose the index that fits better in the study zone. The results shows that the index that works better is the specific modified IGP for Viña del Mar because it reaches a slight diminution on the overestimation of forecasted fires and besides, the percentage of certainty becomes higher in dates of wildfire occurrence.Additionally, the implementation of the Fire Potential Index (FPI) is incorporated. This model gives the possibility to differentiate the fire danger rating according to the vegetation available, and hence, it can be defined the more susceptible areas to fire occurrence in the study zone.
In Chile, CONAF rates the probability of fire occurrence by an index called “Índice de Grado de Peligro (IGP)”, which is a numerical equation based mainly in meteorological conditions, vegetation moisture content and the effect of previous days rainfall.This work has the main purpose of develop a Wildfire Danger Index as an improvement of the actual one used by CONAF, specifically to apply it over the city of Viña del Mar. For this purpose, an investigation of Wildfire Danger Index used internationally is made to study the feasibility of implementation in the city of study. In this investigation, different fire danger rating systems are studied, such as the one in USA, Australia, Canada, and the European Fire Potential Index (FPI).First of all, the IGP index is verified, based on the historic record of wildfire occurrence between the fire seasons of 2003 to 2014, given by CONAF and, the daily meteorological statistics for those events, obtained from de meteorological station Rodelillo from the DMC. The IGP can be applied in two ways, the first one is by using its general equation (applicable for the whole Chilean territory), and the second one is by using the specific equation, applicable to a zone in which Viña del Mar belongs to. In both cases, there is a clear overestimation of forecasted wildland fire over registered fires, which leads to try the implementation of another fire danger rating system.Based on the investigation of indexes and considering aspects as: available meteorological information, ease of execution and the quantity of country that applies the index, it is decided to implement the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) in the city of Viña del Mar, which results in a meteorological Index called Fire Weather Index (FWI). In the same way that it was done with the IGP, it is made a verification of the FWI with the same records and meteorological variables. In this case, the overestimation in fire forecast is much higher than the one obtained by the Chilean IGP.In this work, it is proposed a modification of the specific IGP, and two modification methods for the FWI to finally, by a comparative analysis, choose the index that fits better in the study zone. The results shows that the index that works better is the specific modified IGP for Viña del Mar because it reaches a slight diminution on the overestimation of forecasted fires and besides, the percentage of certainty becomes higher in dates of wildfire occurrence.Additionally, the implementation of the Fire Potential Index (FPI) is incorporated. This model gives the possibility to differentiate the fire danger rating according to the vegetation available, and hence, it can be defined the more susceptible areas to fire occurrence in the study zone.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
CLASIFICACION DE RIESGO , FPI , FWI , GRADO DE PELIGRO , IGP , INCENDIOS FORESTALES , INDICES METEOROLOGICOS