Thesis CALIBRACIÓN Y USO DEL MODELO SRM PARA EL PRONÓSTICO DE CAUDALES DE DESHIELO EN LA CUENCA ACONCAGUA EN CHACABUQUITO
Date
2017
Authors
NÚÑEZ VALENZUELA, IGNACIO ANDRÉS
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Abstract
El agua es un elemento esencial para el desarrollo del país, tanto para el consumo,como en el requerimiento de este recurso en los diversos sectores productivos. Chile, dadasu orografía, tiene en la cordillera de Los Andes un importante embalse natural en estadosólido que provee de agua en la temporada de primavera y verano, a través del deshielo,cuando dicho recurso se hace escaso.Dado lo anterior, resulta de suma importancia pronosticar los caudales de deshielo,ya que es una herramienta importante para poder planificar el recurso hídrico. Este trabajoimplementará el Modelo SRM (Snowmelt Runoff Model) en la cuenca de Aconcagua enChacabuquito, ya que este es el punto de entrada al valle del río Aconcagua. Además, laDirección de Obras Hidráulica (DOH), se encuentra evaluando la posibilidad de proyectar unembalse en este sector.Las variables meteorológicas se obtuvieron desde los registros meteorológicos de laDirección General de Aguas (DGA) y la cobertura nival a partir de imágenes satelitales MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), proporcionadas por la NASA.El desarrollo de este estudio contempla tres procesos:1. Calibración: donde se analizan y modifican los parámetros del modelo querepresentarán las características de la cuenca, de manera de replicar loscaudales medidos de la estación de aforo.2. Verificación: simular los años calibrados con los parámetros promediosobtenidos por temporada (húmeda, normal y seca)3. Pronóstico: estimar el caudal de deshielo para los años: 2011, 2015 y 2016;cuyos valores serán contrastados con el pronóstico de la DGA.En la implementación del modelo SRM en la cuenca seleccionada, los valoressimulados en la calibración poseen una gran correlación con los valores medidos en laestación de aforo, tal como se aprecia en los resultados del coeficiente de determinación R2a nivel y mensual. Por otra parte, en los pronósticos de caudales medios, es posible destacarque los resultados mostraron alta sensibilidad ante la cobertura nival.
Water is essential to the human life, not only for consumption, but for all theproduction activities which contribute to the country development. The orography gives toChile an important natural reserve of water in solid state on the Andes mountains. Thisreserves provide freshwater on spring and summer, when the rain decreases.To planning the activities which rely on this resource is important to estimate themelting flows. In this research the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) has been used on the“Aconcagua in Chacabuquito” basin, the entry point to the Aconcagua valley, where theDirectorate for Hydraulic Works (DOH) is studying the feasibility to build a water reservoir.The weather conditions were taken from the Directorate of Waters (DGA) registersand the snow cover from satellite MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer),provided by NASA.The research is based on three process:1. Calibration: analysis and modification of the model parameters whichrepresent the basin, in order to replicate the flows measured in the gaugingstation.2. Verification: simulate the years calibrated using the average parameters byseason (wet, normal and dry)3. Forecast: estimate the snowmelt for 2011, 2015 and 2016 and compare theestimations against the DGA predictions.The results of the calibration show an important correlation between the SRM modelsimulations and the gauging station measurements, with a high coefficient of determinationR2 for each simulation at daily and monthly levels. On the other hand, at the mean flowforecasts, the results showed a high sensitivity to the snow cover.
Water is essential to the human life, not only for consumption, but for all theproduction activities which contribute to the country development. The orography gives toChile an important natural reserve of water in solid state on the Andes mountains. Thisreserves provide freshwater on spring and summer, when the rain decreases.To planning the activities which rely on this resource is important to estimate themelting flows. In this research the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) has been used on the“Aconcagua in Chacabuquito” basin, the entry point to the Aconcagua valley, where theDirectorate for Hydraulic Works (DOH) is studying the feasibility to build a water reservoir.The weather conditions were taken from the Directorate of Waters (DGA) registersand the snow cover from satellite MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer),provided by NASA.The research is based on three process:1. Calibration: analysis and modification of the model parameters whichrepresent the basin, in order to replicate the flows measured in the gaugingstation.2. Verification: simulate the years calibrated using the average parameters byseason (wet, normal and dry)3. Forecast: estimate the snowmelt for 2011, 2015 and 2016 and compare theestimations against the DGA predictions.The results of the calibration show an important correlation between the SRM modelsimulations and the gauging station measurements, with a high coefficient of determinationR2 for each simulation at daily and monthly levels. On the other hand, at the mean flowforecasts, the results showed a high sensitivity to the snow cover.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
ACONCAGUA EN CHACABUQUITO , DERRETIMIENTO DE NIEVE , ESCORRENTIA , MODELO SRM , TELEDETECCION