Thesis MEDICIÓN DE LA VARIABILIDAD EN LOS COSTOS DEL SISTEMA ELÉCTRICO NACIONAL BAJO DISTINTOS ESCENARIOS DE PENETRACIÓN DE ENERGÍAS RENOVABLES NO CONVENCIONALES
Date
2016
Authors
TRONCOSO POBLETE, JAVIER FELIPE
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Abstract
Chile ha firmado recientemente en la Conferencia de las Partes (COP21) un compromisoambiental y energético enfocado en una matriz sustentable y ligada al desarrollo social yeconómico del país. Dichos objetivos han sido acordados por el Ejecutivo mediante leyes yPolíticas de largo plazo. Para la mitigación de GEI se propuso una disminución de un 30%hacia 2050 respecto a las emisiones del año 2007, además se propone una capacidad degeneración eléctrica de un 70% proveniente de energías renovables, ambos planteamientosestán descritos en la Política Energética 2050. Además, mediante la ley 20.698 se exige alos generadores una cuota de generación renovable, apuntando a obtener una generación de20% de ERNC hacia 2025. Dicha ley debiese ser dinámica e ir actualizándose recurrentementepara lograr el acuerdo en la COP21.Para la consecución de los objetivos anteriores, el país debe enfocar recursos tantoprivados como públicos en la incorporación de las energías renovables no convencionales.Es evidente que Chile cuenta con las capacidades para lograr aquello. Según un estudiorealizado por el Ministerio de Energía en cooperación con Deutsche Gesellschaft für InternationaleZusammenarbeit (GIZ) se obtuvo el potencial de energías renovables para el país,de Arica a Chiloé: 40.452 MW para energía eólica, 1.640.128 MW para el caso solar - PV,552.871 MW para el caso solar - CSP, 3.600 MW para energía geotérmica y 3.658 MWpara el caso mini-hidroeléctrico.El sistema de generación eléctrica chileno se divide en cuatro subsistemas independientesfraccionados por la geografía del país: Sistema Interconectado Central (SIC), SistemaInterconectado del Norte Grande (SING), Sistema Mediano de Aysen (SMA) y SistemaMediano de Magallanes (SMM). El SIC es la principal red eléctrica del país, ostentandoun 78% de la capacidad instalada y el 74% de la demanda y, si se consideran las dosprincipales redes (SIC y SING) en conjunto poseen el 99,2% de la capacidad instaladay el 99,4% de la demanda total del país. En ellos existe en la actualidad una amplia gamade centrales en evaluación ambiental y con aprobación para su construcción, además de una capacidad no despreciable de proyectos en construcción. Sobre los proyectos enconstrucción para el SIC y SING, en Abril de 2016 el CIFES reportó 2.915 [MW] y 2.693[MW] de ERNC en operación y construcción respectivamente, en cambio, los MW conresolución de calificación ambiental aprobada (RCA) eran 19.004 MW y existen 8.255MW en calificación.En esta tesis investigativa se analizan los impactos en los costos producidos por laincorporación de ERNC al Sistema Eléctrico Nacional (interconexión) y su comparacióncon el SIC y SING. Para ello se crean cuatro escenarios para sensibilizar la penetración deenergías limpias, aquello en un horizonte de simulación de 35 años (2017-2051).Para el proceso de simulación se utilizó el software PLEXOS®, el cual representa elsistema hidrotérmico del SEN, considerando restricciones para las centrales térmicas ehidroeléctricas y perfiles de generación estáticos para las centrales renovables intermitentes.Otros datos de entrada corresponden capacidades instaladas e información relevante delas actual matriz eléctrica, planes y costos de obras de generación y transmisión, preciosde combustible, información hidrológica, proyección de la demanda eléctrica y creaciónde escenarios de ERNC. Los principales resultados obtenidos corresponde al costo marginaly sus comparaciones con escenarios y sistemas, costos de integración de las energíasrenovables, distribución diaria de generación y las emisiones de GEI. Las simulacionesfueron realizadas en un equipo Intel Core i3-2310M 2.10 GHz con 6 GB de RAM, dondecada simulación fue separada en 7 años (resultando 5 simulaciones por Sistema), las cualestardaron en su ejecución alrededor de 1 a 2 horas cada una.Los costos marginales del SEN (principal sistema de estudio de este trabajo) presentapromedios similares en su magnitud y no existe diferencia apreciable que indique que loscostos varían considerablemente. El valor oscila entre 24 y 83 [US$/MWh] dependiendodel escenario. Se observa además, que el costo marginal se ve reducido en magnitud yvariabilidad en los meses de verano producto de la alta radiación solar y por consiguiente,se ve aumentado en los meses de otoño-invierno. Por otro lado, los costos de integración se calculan para cada escenario obteniendo que a medida que la penetración es mayor, laintegración es menos costosa para este tipo de tecnologías producto de economías de escalaen la transmisión e inversión en generación. El valor se mueve entre 78-121 [US$/MWh].Por último, en los resultados referidos a las emisiones de GEI, se obtuvo que a medida queaumenta la capacidad instalada de ERNC, las emisiones se ven disminuidas desde un 7%hasta un 27 %.Finalmente, en la discusión se proponen cambios de tecnologías y mejoras en lascondiciones de aprobación de financiamiento. La aprobación por parte del SEIA no esuna problemática, sino que a partir de ella y obtener la solvencia económica para la construcciónes el principal desafío para una diversificación óptima de la matriz eléctrica chilena.
Recently, Chile signed at Conference of the Parties (COP21) an environmental andenergy agreement focused on a sustainable matrix and linked to its economic and socialdevelopment. These objectives were agreed by the Government by long-term laws andpolicies. In order to mitigate GHG, an emission reduction target of 30% by 2050 comparedto 2007 was proposed, and was also an electricity generation capacity 70% basedon renewable sources; both proposals are described in the Energy Policy 2050. Also, bylaw 20.698, it is mandatory to generators a renewable generation fee, aiming to obtain ageneration 20% of ERNC by 2050. This law should be dynamic and constantly updated inorder to achieve the COP21 agreement.In order to achieve these objectives, Chile has to focus resources, as private as public,in the incorporation of non-conventional renewable energies. It is clear that Chile has thecapacity to achieve these. According to a study developed by the Ministry of Energy andthe Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Chilean potentialrenewable energies, from Arica to Chiloé are: 40.452 MW for wind, 1.640.128 MW forsolar - PV, 552.871 MW for solar - CSP, 3.600 MW for geothermal energy and 3.658 MWfor small hydropower.Chilean electricity generation system is divided into four subsystems independent andseparated by geography: Central Interconnected System (SIC for its initials in Spanish),Norte Grande interconnected System (SING for its initials in Spanish), Aysén Mid System(SMA for its initials in Spanish) and Magallanes Mid System (SMM for its initials in Spanish).SIC is the main electrical grid in the country, with 78% of the capacity installed and74% of demand and, if the two main grids are considered (SIC and SING) both they have99.2% of the capacity installed and 99,4% of Chilean total demand. Currently, they havea wide range of power plants under environmental evaluation and also building projects.About building projects for SIC and SING, in April 2016, CIFES reported 2.915 [MW]and 2.693 [MW] of ERNC functioning and under construction, respectively, however, MW with Environmental Qualification Resolution (RCA for its initials in Spanish) were 19.004MW and there are 8.255 MW to be qualified.In this investigative thesis, impacts of costs produced by incorporating ERNC to theNational Electric System (interconnection) and its comparison with SIC and SING wereanalyzed. In order to do this, four scenarios were created to develop a sensitive analysisabut clean energy generation, in a time period of 35 years (2015-2051).For this simulation process PLEXOS software was run, which represents hydrothermalsystem of SEN, considering restrictions for thermic and hydroelectric power plantsand static profiles of generation for intermittent renewable power plants. Other data entrycorresponded to installed capacity and relevant information about current energy matrix,plans and costs about and generation and transmission constructions, fuel costs, waterinformation, electricity demand projection and creation of ERNC scenarios. Main resultsobtained corresponded to marginal cost and its comparison with systems and scenarios,costs of renewable energies integration, daily distribution and GHG emissions. The simulationswere run in a computer Intel Core i3-2310M 2.10 GHz with 6 GB RAM, where eachsimulation was separated by 7 years (resulting in 5 simulations by system) took between 1and 2 hours.Marginal costs of SEN (main system of study in this work) presented similar averageson its magnitude and there was no significant dierence indicating considerable variationsin costs. As has been seen, cost oscillated between 24 and 83 [US$/MWh] depending onthe scenario. It was possible to observe that marginal costs were reduced on its magnitudeand variability on summer, due a high solar radiation and, therefore, increased duringautumn-winter months. On the other hand, integration costs were calculated for each scenarioyielding as higher the penetration was, as cheaper the integration was for this kind oftechnologies, due scale economies in transmission and generation investment. The valueoscillated between 78 and 121[US$/MWh]. Results referred to GHG emissions, showed when capacity of ERNC installed increases,the emissions decreased from 7% to 27 %.Finally, in the discussion, changes on methodology and improvements of conditions forfinancial approval were proposed. SEIA approval is not a problem, but financial solvencyfor construction is the main challenge to an optimal diversification of Chilean energymatrix.
Recently, Chile signed at Conference of the Parties (COP21) an environmental andenergy agreement focused on a sustainable matrix and linked to its economic and socialdevelopment. These objectives were agreed by the Government by long-term laws andpolicies. In order to mitigate GHG, an emission reduction target of 30% by 2050 comparedto 2007 was proposed, and was also an electricity generation capacity 70% basedon renewable sources; both proposals are described in the Energy Policy 2050. Also, bylaw 20.698, it is mandatory to generators a renewable generation fee, aiming to obtain ageneration 20% of ERNC by 2050. This law should be dynamic and constantly updated inorder to achieve the COP21 agreement.In order to achieve these objectives, Chile has to focus resources, as private as public,in the incorporation of non-conventional renewable energies. It is clear that Chile has thecapacity to achieve these. According to a study developed by the Ministry of Energy andthe Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Chilean potentialrenewable energies, from Arica to Chiloé are: 40.452 MW for wind, 1.640.128 MW forsolar - PV, 552.871 MW for solar - CSP, 3.600 MW for geothermal energy and 3.658 MWfor small hydropower.Chilean electricity generation system is divided into four subsystems independent andseparated by geography: Central Interconnected System (SIC for its initials in Spanish),Norte Grande interconnected System (SING for its initials in Spanish), Aysén Mid System(SMA for its initials in Spanish) and Magallanes Mid System (SMM for its initials in Spanish).SIC is the main electrical grid in the country, with 78% of the capacity installed and74% of demand and, if the two main grids are considered (SIC and SING) both they have99.2% of the capacity installed and 99,4% of Chilean total demand. Currently, they havea wide range of power plants under environmental evaluation and also building projects.About building projects for SIC and SING, in April 2016, CIFES reported 2.915 [MW]and 2.693 [MW] of ERNC functioning and under construction, respectively, however, MW with Environmental Qualification Resolution (RCA for its initials in Spanish) were 19.004MW and there are 8.255 MW to be qualified.In this investigative thesis, impacts of costs produced by incorporating ERNC to theNational Electric System (interconnection) and its comparison with SIC and SING wereanalyzed. In order to do this, four scenarios were created to develop a sensitive analysisabut clean energy generation, in a time period of 35 years (2015-2051).For this simulation process PLEXOS software was run, which represents hydrothermalsystem of SEN, considering restrictions for thermic and hydroelectric power plantsand static profiles of generation for intermittent renewable power plants. Other data entrycorresponded to installed capacity and relevant information about current energy matrix,plans and costs about and generation and transmission constructions, fuel costs, waterinformation, electricity demand projection and creation of ERNC scenarios. Main resultsobtained corresponded to marginal cost and its comparison with systems and scenarios,costs of renewable energies integration, daily distribution and GHG emissions. The simulationswere run in a computer Intel Core i3-2310M 2.10 GHz with 6 GB RAM, where eachsimulation was separated by 7 years (resulting in 5 simulations by system) took between 1and 2 hours.Marginal costs of SEN (main system of study in this work) presented similar averageson its magnitude and there was no significant dierence indicating considerable variationsin costs. As has been seen, cost oscillated between 24 and 83 [US$/MWh] depending onthe scenario. It was possible to observe that marginal costs were reduced on its magnitudeand variability on summer, due a high solar radiation and, therefore, increased duringautumn-winter months. On the other hand, integration costs were calculated for each scenarioyielding as higher the penetration was, as cheaper the integration was for this kind oftechnologies, due scale economies in transmission and generation investment. The valueoscillated between 78 and 121[US$/MWh]. Results referred to GHG emissions, showed when capacity of ERNC installed increases,the emissions decreased from 7% to 27 %.Finally, in the discussion, changes on methodology and improvements of conditions forfinancial approval were proposed. SEIA approval is not a problem, but financial solvencyfor construction is the main challenge to an optimal diversification of Chilean energymatrix.
Description
Catalogado desde la version PDF de la tesis.
Keywords
DIVERSIFICACION ENERGETICA , ENERGIAS RENOVABLES NO CONVENCIONALES , INTEGRACION ENERGIAS RENOVABLES , INTERCONEXION REDES ELECTRICAS , MATRIZ ELECTRICA , MERCADOS ELECTRICOS